Even though On Holding AG's (NYSE:ONON) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details.
A Closer Look At On Holding's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to September 2024, On Holding had an accrual ratio of -0.49. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CHF400m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CHF126.0m. Given that On Holding had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CHF400m would seem to be a step in the right direction.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On On Holding's Profit Performance
Happily for shareholders, On Holding produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that On Holding's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And the EPS is up 56% over the last twelve months. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. At Simply Wall St, we have analyst estimates which you can view by clicking here.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of On Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
