Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist, Seth Carpenter, stated that the tariffs proposed by President Trump will weaken usa economic growth by 2026.

President Trump stated his intention to impose a uniform tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported products, and an additional tariff of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. In the September presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to obtain funds from competing countries.

Another issue is when and how quickly these tariffs will be implemented. Carpenter stated that if these tariffs are implemented simultaneously, it may cause a "significant negative impact" on the economy.

Carpenter maintains Morgan Stanley's core prediction that these tariffs will be phased in by 2025, leading to an increase in inflation.

He warned, "By 2026, we believe that due to tariffs and some other policies, US economic growth will start to decline significantly." "Clearly, tariffs have raised inflation. Clearly, tariffs have dragged down US economic growth, not just for the countries subjected to tariffs.

Chief Information Officer Mark Malek of brokerage firm Siebert pointed out that if the proposed tariffs are imposed, especially on top of the tariffs already imposed by the Biden administration, inflation rates in a range of industries including autos, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail trade will rise.

Malek stated that Trump's proposal to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, along with Biden's current 100% tariff on electric cars manufactured in China, will have a "severe impact" on the auto industry, while a general 10% tariff on imported consumer electronics will increase.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$and $Apple (AAPL.US)$ As for the company's costs. He added that these higher costs may be passed on to consumers.

Although the US consumer price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, slightly higher than 2.4% in September, US inflation has been falling for many years, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates.

Ben Emons, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of FedWatch Advisors, said that if comprehensive tariffs are implemented, the market may completely rule out the possibility of a rate cut in 2025, and tariffs may also "restrain" economic growth.

Editor/Rocky