智通财经 APP learned that Guolian Securities has released a research report stating that according to the national statistics released on the basic situation report of the national real estate sector from January to October 2024, the year-on-year decline in sales area, sales amount, and completed area has all narrowed. On the investment side, property companies' land acquisition remains at historical low levels, and development investment and construction area may continue to stabilize at low levels. With the advancement of government debt reduction and asset acquisition, the completed area is expected to gradually stabilize. Since the end of September, bullish policies in the real estate sector have frequently emerged, boosting market confidence and sales have shown signs of recovery. Looking ahead, on November 13, the Ministry of Finance and others will release housing tax adjustments, directly reducing residents' home buying costs, which may help maintain market momentum. Coupled with the year-end performance sprint of property companies, sales are expected to continue recovering.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Industry events.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation report of the national real estate market from January to October 2024. The cumulative sales area of commercial housing, sales amount, investment amount, new construction area, and completed area from January to October are 779.3 million square meters / 7685.5 billion yuan / 8630.9 billion yuan / 612.27 million square meters / 419.95 million square meters, with year-on-year changes of -15.8% / -20.9% / -10.3% / -22.6% / -23.9% respectively. Overall, the year-on-year decline in sales area, sales amount, and completed area has all narrowed.

Investment side: Development investment stabilizes with fluctuations, the decline in completed area narrows.

From January to October 2024, the cumulative national real estate development investment reached 8630.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -10.3%, compared to the expansion of the year-on-year decline by 0.2 percentage points from January to September. The cumulative new construction area of housing was 612.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of -22.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points from January to September. The cumulative completed area of housing was 419.95 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of -23.9%, while the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to January to September. In terms of the land market, according to data from the China Index Academy, the transaction area of residential land in 300 cities nationwide in October was 35.81 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of -25.5%. Property companies' land acquisition remains at historical low levels, while development investment and construction area may continue to stabilize, and as the government takes steps towards debt reduction and asset acquisition, the completed area is expected to gradually stabilize.

Sales aspect: The effects of policies have emerged, and sales have shown signs of recovery.

From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide reached 779.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of -15.8%. The cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to January to September. The cumulative sales amount of commercial housing from January to October reached 7685.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -20.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points compared to January to September. In October, the sales area of commercial housing was 76.46 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of -1.6%, and the decline narrowed by 9.4 percentage points month-on-month; the sales amount of commercial housing was 797.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -1.0%, and the decline narrowed by 15.3 percentage points month-on-month. Since the political bureau meeting on September 26, which first proposed "stabilizing the decline," bullish policies for real estate have been frequently introduced, and the effects of these policies are reflected in the October data.

Funding aspect: The availability of funds continues to improve, and there is marginal recovery in sales payments.

From January to October 2024, the total funding source for real estate development companies was 8723.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -19.2%. The year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to September, marking the seventh consecutive month of narrowing. In October 2024, the funding source for real estate development companies was 833.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -10.8%, and the year-on-year decline narrowed by 7.7 percentage points compared to September. Looking at the sources, from January to October, the cumulative deposits and advance payments, as well as personal mortgage loans, decreased year-on-year by -27.7% and -32.8% respectively, with the declines narrowing by 2.1 percentage points for both compared to January to September. With the gradual implementation of land replenishment and the collection of existing properties, it is expected that the cash flow situation of real estate companies will improve.

Regarding symbols: It is suggested to focus on key layouts in first-tier and core second-tier cities, targeting improvement products, and real estate companies capable of continuous land acquisition, such as Greentown China (03900), C&D Intl Group (01908), and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group (002244.SZ); also pay attention to real estate intermediary platforms with core competitiveness, such as 5i5j Holding Group (000560.SZ), which benefit from the continuous implementation of bullish policies and the increased activity in the primary and secondary housing markets.

Risk warning: Policy effects do not meet expectations; liquidity risks for real estate companies increase; market confidence falls short of expectations.