美联储未来降息步伐的不确定性、以及特朗普当选美国总统后可能实施的政策为美元的表现带来了不确定因素。在这种情况下，一些策略师对欧元兑日元的走势有了更清晰的认识。Strategists from Rabobank, Nomura Securities, and Mizuho Securities expect that by the end of next year, the euro to yen exchange rate will drop to a low of 140-150 yen per euro.
According to Zhichun Finance APP, the euro to yen exchange rate is gaining more attention as the divergence in monetary policy between the two regions seems to provide opportunities for this currency pair. As the eurozone economy struggles, the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates, with a further decrease of 25 basis points possible next month. Meanwhile, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will proceed with its monetary policy normalization, with a roughly 50% chance of an interest rate hike next month.
Relatively high interest rates usually boost the corresponding currency, as they attract funds seeking higher returns. Therefore, the aforementioned policy divergence has traders betting on a relative strengthening of the yen against the euro. It is reported that strategists from Rabobank, Nomura Securities, and Mizuho Securities expect that by the end of next year, the euro to yen exchange rate will drop to a low of 140-150 yen per euro. This exchange rate has been outside this range since June 2023 and is currently hovering around 164 yen per euro.
The uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, along with potential policies that could be implemented after Trump's election as president of the USA, introduces uncertainty into the dollar's performance. In this context, some strategists have gained clearer insights into the trend of the euro to yen exchange rate.
Nomura Securities forex strategist Moteki Jin stated: 'The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates multiple times in the first half of next year. Therefore, if this occurs, the interest rate differential will continue to strengthen the yen against the euro.' Mizuho Securities predicts that the yen to euro exchange rate will rise to 140 yen per euro by the end of 2025, marking the highest level since March 2023.
Rabobank also believes that the yen to euro exchange rate may strengthen, but their predictions are more cautious. Jane Foley, head of forex strategy at Rabobank, stated in a report: 'We expect the European Central Bank's dovish stance to weaken the euro's resilience next year, and we think there is room for the euro to yen exchange rate to drop to 150 yen per euro in 12 months.' 'The eurozone is also plagued by structural issues and insufficient investment.'
