Core views:

Domestic thermistors and temperature sensor leaders continue to expand in the field of sensors. Starting with thermistors, Amperon continues to explore product matrices and application fields through excellent and continuous independent research and development capabilities, and has formed three major product lines of thermistors and temperature, pressure, and oxygen sensors.

Relying on parallel horizontal and vertical expansion of technology to increase value. The company has sensor chip design capabilities (vertical industry chain) and horizontal expansion capabilities. Pressure sensors have expanded from ceramic capacitive types covering medium ranges to glass microfusion and MEMS sensors that can cover high ranges and small ranges.

Basic board: Thermistors and temperature sensors in the field of home appliances, going overseas to find increments. The company started with thermistor sensors, and its customers include leading companies in the home appliance, energy storage, and automotive industries. In '22, the domestic scale of thermistors and temperature sensors for domestic consumer products was 5.3 billion yuan (prospectus); in '22, the company's thermistors and temperature sensor business revenue was 0.36 billion yuan, with a market share of about 6.8%.

Second growth curve: Pressure sensors are growing rapidly in the fields of energy storage and automotive electronics. The average bicycle value of a car sensor is about 2,000 yuan/unit. Currently, the value of an Ampelon ceramic capacitive pressure sensor bike is about 210-280 yuan/unit; the value of an oxygen sensor bike is 120-240 yuan/unit (reply letter). In the future, as production of MEMS pressure sensors and glass microfusion sensors expands, the value of the company's bicycles is expected to continue to grow, and the share+space will expand at the same time. There is plenty of room for domestic replacement of automotive electronic sensors, and as the level of intelligence of new energy vehicles increases, the configuration penetration rate of environmental sensing sensors such as pressure and oxygen sensors will increase dramatically, opening up a new increase in the company's market space.

Seed business: Comprehensive layout of humanoid robots, from torque and six-dimensional forces to tactile sensors. The company expects human-type torque sensors to be delivered in small batches in the second half of '24 (company semi-annual report), and the product can be applied to robot joint modules. The tactile sensor company aims to replace high-performance piezoelectric films in domestic production; the six-dimensional force sensor is currently undergoing sample development, and there are 4 related patents.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.1/0.134/0.179 billion for 24-26, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company a reasonable valuation of 45 x PE for 25 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 61.32 yuan/share, covering the first time to give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning. Risk of falling demand in the terminal market, falling short of expectations for new products, falling gross margin, falling unit sales prices for major products; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.