Jingwu Financial News | huaan's research report indicates that in FY25Q2, alibaba (09988) revenue was 236.5 billion yuan (yoy +5%), slightly lower than the consensus expectation of 239.4 billion yuan; gross profit was 92.5 billion yuan (yoy +8.6%), higher than the consensus expectation of 90.4 billion yuan. In terms of profitability, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income reached 47.3 billion yuan (yoy -4%, margin 20%) and 36.5 billion yuan (yoy -9%, margin 15%) respectively, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding the consensus expectation of 46.9 billion yuan and adjusted net income exceeding the consensus expectation of 35.6 billion yuan.

The bank indicated that the growth in TaoTian's GMV was driven by double-digit year-on-year growth in order volume, partially offset by a decline in average order value. Additionally, starting September 1, TaoTian implemented a service fee based on GMV for QianNiu basic software, which narrowed the gap between CMR and GMV growth rates. This quarter, TaoTian's monetization rate remained flat year-on-year. As the penetration rate of promoted merchants and service fees increase, the bank believes that TaoTian's monetization rate will open an upward growth channel, suggesting continued attention to the monetization rate level. Meanwhile, the cloud business experienced accelerated growth quarter-on-quarter (yoy +7.1%, up from 5.9% last quarter), with double-digit growth in public cloud revenue, and revenue from AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth. In addition, on the profit side, the cloud business profits are released at an accelerated pace, significantly exceeding expectations, with adjusted cloud business EBITDA at 2.66 billion yuan, surpassing the BBG consensus expectation of 21.3 billion.

The bank forecasts that alibaba's revenue for FY2025-2027 will be 1006.72/1104.41/1191.96 billion yuan, year-on-year +7.0%/+9.7%/+7.9%; Non-GAAP net income is expected to record 154.4/167.87/182.37 billion yuan, year-on-year -2%/+9%/+9%, maintaining a 'buy' rating.