When close to half the companies in Singapore have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 11x, you may consider Keppel Ltd. (SGX:BN4) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 16.3x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Keppel could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For Keppel?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Keppel's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 99% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 16% each year during the coming three years according to the twelve analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 10% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Keppel is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Keppel maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Having said that, be aware Keppel is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable.
If you're unsure about the strength of Keppel's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
