Zhisheng Finance APP has learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report reiterating the "buy" rating for alibaba-W (09988), expecting alibaba's revenue for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 1010.9/1113.4/1214.4 billion yuan; non-GAAP net income for shareholders to be 160/183/206.2 billion yuan. The reasonable target price is 114 Hong Kong dollars for shares listed in hong kong. alibaba's revenue for the fiscal Q2 2025 (natural quarter ending in September) is 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; adjusted EBITA is about 40.6 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with an EBITA profit margin of about 17%.

Zhongsheng Securities' main points are as follows:

alibaba released its performance report for the September quarter of 2024.

alibaba's revenue for the fiscal Q2 2025 (natural quarter ending in September) is 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among this, the revenues of Taotian, International Business, Local Life, Cainiao, Cloud Computing, and Big Entertainment were 990/317/177/24.6/29.6/5.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%/29%/14%/8%/7%/-1.5%, respectively.

The company's adjusted EBITA for this quarter is about 40.6 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with an EBITA profit margin of about 17%. Among them, the adjusted EBITA profit margins for Taotian, International Business, Local Life, Cainiao, Cloud Computing, and Big Entertainment this quarter are 45%/-9%/-2%/0%/9%/-3%. For this quarter, the company's non-GAAP net profit is 36.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%.

Taotian: Monetization speed needs to be accelerated, Taotian is still in the investment phase.

This quarter, the company's customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 2% year-on-year, mainly due to the growth in e-commerce GMV. From the perspective of monetization rate, the penetration of the previous "site-wide promotion" tool, as well as the collection of a 0.6% technical service fee starting in September, had a positive effect on monetization rates; however, this was partially offset by low monetization rates from some new models.

This quarter, Taotian's adjusted EBITA profit margin was about 45%, significantly down from 48% in the same period last year, mainly due to increased investment in user experience. Taotian Group's user experience-first strategy has begun to show results, with GMV order volume in Taotian experiencing double-digit growth this quarter. From the user data, by the end of this quarter, the number of 88VIP memberships reached 46 million. The organization expects that user investment in Taotian will continue in the near term.

Cloud intelligence: AI-driven growth, with continued improvement in profit margins.

This quarter, Alibaba Cloud's business revenue was 29.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7%, with the growth rate continuing to improve. Public cloud revenue grew by double digits year-on-year, and revenue from AI-related products achieved three-digit growth for five consecutive quarters. This quarter, Alibaba Cloud's adjusted EBITA rate increased to 9.0%, with improvements in operational efficiency and product structure. The company is bullish on the demand for AI, especially in the reasoning aspect, and will continue to invest in AI-related products; the organization expects AI to continue driving substantial growth in the cloud business.

Risk warning: Industry policies may have a greater than expected impact on business, e-commerce and cloud computing progress may fall short of expectations, and macroeconomic conditions may change beyond expectations.