Q3 养殖业务盈利主导，地产业务进入存量销售京基智农2024Q3 单季度实现归母净利润3.66 亿元，其中生猪养殖业务实现归母净利润约3.22 亿元，大约占单季度总归母净利润的88.0%，凸显在公司发展战略中的重要性。虽然2024 前三季度公司营收规模同比大幅下滑，主因房地产业务进入存量销售体量缩小，但是我们认为应将关注重点放在公司养殖业务的未来发展，目前营收规模变化仅是业务结构战略调整的中间产物。我们看好本次定增预案终落地，两项新项目有望均于建成后第三年达成达产状态，助力公司养殖业务规模和业绩达到新高度。On November 15, 2024, Jingji Zhinong announced the “2024 Plan to Issue A Shares to Specific Targets”. It plans to issue no more than 0.159 billion additional shares to no more than 35 specific targets, including Tokyoji Group, the holding stock. The number of shares issued will not exceed 30% of the total share capital before this issuance, and plans to raise a total of 1.93 billion yuan.
Key investment points
Focusing on the pig breeding business, the fixed increase plan issued by Jingji Zhinong to raise capital can be expected to increase its performance. In the fixed increase plan issued by Jingji Zhinong, it is planned to use 7.55 and 597 million yuan respectively to invest in the “Yunfu Pig Breeding Integrated Project” and the “Hezhou Pig Breeding Base Project”. The rest of the funds will be used to supplement the working capital project. After delivery, the two production expansion projects are expected to add 0.3 million commercial pigs and 0.68 million piglets each year. The total production capacity expansion plan is close to 1 million heads. The planned expansion volume will increase by 53.12% compared to the full year of 2023, greatly broadening the company's performance growth potential in the future. At the same time, this fixed increase plan also once again clarified the company's strategic determination to focus on pig breeding business. Entering 2024, the breeding business has replaced the real estate business as the company's largest business. It is expected that in the future, along with the elimination of the company's remaining real estate stock and expansion of pig breeding capacity, the strategic importance of the breeding business will be further highlighted.
The Q3 breeding business was dominated by profit. The real estate business entered stock sales and Jingji Zhinong achieved net profit of 0.366 billion yuan in a single quarter. Among them, the pig breeding business achieved net profit of about 0.322 billion yuan to the mother, accounting for about 88.0% of the total net profit to the mother in a single quarter, highlighting its importance in the company's development strategy. Although the company's revenue scale declined sharply year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to the real estate business entering stock and sales volume shrinking, we believe that attention should be focused on the future development of the company's farming business. Currently, changes in revenue scale are only an intermediate product of the strategic adjustment of the business structure. We are optimistic that this fixed increase plan will finally be implemented. Both new projects are expected to reach production in the third year after completion, helping the company's farming business scale and performance reach new heights.
Q4 Costs are expected to return to normal. Sales of pigs increased sharply year on year. Jingji Zhinong was affected by typhoon “Mao” in September. The full cost of fattening pigs in September rebounded slightly compared to the short term in July and August, to 14.59 yuan/kg. However, we believe that as we enter Q4, pig farming costs are expected to quickly return to normal levels after the company removes the subsequent effects of natural disasters. Furthermore, in the current context where feed costs are low, breeding costs are expected to show a downward trend again and continue to broaden the profit margins of the farming business. The number of pigs released by the company in October 2024 was 0.1829 million. Although there was a slight decrease from month to month, a total of 1.8173 million heads were released from January to October 2024, achieving a year-on-year increase of 19.92%; a total sales revenue of 3.265 billion yuan was achieved, achieving a significant increase of 41.10% over the previous year.
Profit forecasting
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is 6.372, 7.191, and 8.123 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 1.55, 1.70, and 1.66 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 10.5, 9.5, and 9.8 times, respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” investment rating.
Risk warning
The risk of disease in the pig breeding industry; the risk of natural disasters and extreme weather; the risk of changes in industrial policy; the rise in pig prices falling short of expectations; the risk of fluctuations in feed and raw materials markets; the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; the risk that breeding capacity expansion falls short of expectations; the risk that real estate stock sales fall short of expectations; and the implementation of fixed growth plans falls short of expectations.
