Guidance
As previously announced, net income per share for 2024 and 2025 are expected to increase significantly, and we have raised our guidance for the last three consecutive quarters. Beginning with the second quarter of 2024, we began providing guidance using basic shares and followed that practice in the third quarter of 2024. We are providing additional context to net income per share guidance by disclosing these metrics, using both basic and fully diluted share counts, and will disclose both metrics going forward. Other than the inclusion of guidance as to net income per share - diluted, the below guidance is the same as what was included in last week's earnings press release.
| Guidance Metrics | 2024E | 2025E |
| Core Business1 direct premiums written growth2 | 25% to 35% | 15% to 25% |
| Combined ratio | 79% to 83% | 82% to 86% |
| Net income per share - basic | $1.40 to $1.70 | $1.60 to $2.00 |
| Net income per share - diluted | $1.30 to $1.60 | $1.45 to $1.85 |
| Return on equity | 32% to 26% | 24% to 32% |
1Kingstone refers to New York business as its "Core" business and business outside of New York as its "Non-Core" business.
2Core direct premiums written is not based on GAAP. Direct premiums written represent the total premiums charged on policies issued by the Company during the respective fiscal period. Net premiums earned is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to direct premiums written. -
The following reflects the impact of dilution to total shares outstanding for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and full-year 2024/2025 guidance:
Common Stock Metrics (shares in millions) | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 | 2024E | 2025E |
| Weighted average shares outstanding - basic | 11.1 | 11.6 | 12.5 |
| Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted | 12.3 | 12.3 | 13.4 |
| Total shares outstanding as of end of period - basic | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| Total shares outstanding as of end of period - diluted | 13.8 | 13.8 | 14.0 |
| All changes to total shares outstanding - basic and diluted assumed for 2024 and 2025 are primarily from the vesting of restricted shares pursuant to arrangements currently in effect and do not reflect any increases that may result from stock issuances in capital-raising transactions. | |||
