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地缘局势再添一把火!黄金重回2630美元,抛售势头已尽?

The geopolitical situation has added more fuel to the fire! Gold has returned to 2,630 dollars. Has the selling momentum come to an end?

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 19 21:50

Gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, has the necessary factor for potential buyers to enter the market been triggered?

After six days of selling, the price of gold rose for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, reaching a weekly high of 2630 US dollars, above the 2630 US dollar level, and at one point approached 2640 US dollars. With the US dollar pulling back from recent highs, the gold market seems to be regaining momentum.

Ole Hansen, head of csi commodity equity index strategy at Shengbao Banks, said, "The selling pressure has eased, attracting potential buyers who have been waiting for market stability before re-entering. The halt in the rise of the US dollar may be a necessary trigger factor."

As investors take profit after last week's strong rise (the US dollar rose to a one-year high), the US dollar has started to fall. The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the cost of buying gold for buyers holding other currencies.

Since Trump's election, the price of gold has fallen by nearly 5%. However, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at USA Dow Freres Global Investments, said in a recent interview that even amidst the current selling spree, the gold market is still in a robust uptrend and still expected to realize its call expectations by the end of the year.

Earlier this summer, Milling-Stanley raised his year-end gold call price forecast to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce. His base scenario is for gold trading prices to be between $2,200 and $2,500 per ounce.

"I am somewhat surprised by the severity of the gold sell-off, but I don't think it will last," he said. "After rising 33% this year, I believe investors should not be overly concerned about this sell-off."

Looking ahead, Milling-Stanley said he does not believe Trump's potential policies will be as favorable to the US dollar as many think. Although Trump's proposed tariffs will support domestic production, higher inflation pressures could slow down economic activity.

Although the Federal Reserve has started a new easing cycle, Milling-Stanley stated that if inflation rises again, he expects Federal Reserve Chair Powell will not hesitate to raise interest rates, which would slow down economic growth.

Several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches this week, which may provide more insights into the future interest rate cut path of the Federal Reserve. Traders currently believe there is a 58% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

Milling-Stanley pointed out that gold is not afraid of the shift in US monetary policy. He noted that at the beginning of the year, the market expected to see six rate cuts, and even though these expectations have been reduced, gold has seen its best rebound since 1979.

Meanwhile, Milling-Stanley stated that inflation is not the only factor supporting the price of gold. He explained that Trump's proposed tax cuts not only have inflationary effects but also add to the already expanding government debt. "If we see signs of inflation, I believe gold will respond to it, rather than any measures taken by the Federal Reserve to address inflation," he said. "Gold is very sensitive to inflation and also to debt and deficits."

Given all these uncertainties and the current easing cycle, Milling-Stanley stated that he still expects Western investors to continue to flow back into gold-backed ETFs. "I think many people have been waiting for this pullback. With the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates, economic uncertainty remains high, and gold still remains attractive."

Furthermore, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also driven up the price of gold. Russia launched its largest air strikes against Ukraine in nearly three months last Sunday. According to reports from TASS, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on Tuesday that Ukraine used the US Army's Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missile to attack Russia.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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