Nvidia's (NVDA.O) strong rally will face a test on November 20. At that time, this semiconductor giant will release its 2025 fiscal third quarter (three months ending October 27) financial report. Investors and analysts are looking forward to this chipmaker's ability to continue growing with the momentum of artificial intelligence (AI).

Nvidia's stock price has already soared an astounding 183% in 2024 and is currently highly valued. This article will review Nvidia's stock performance after the last four financial report releases and analyze possible trends after the financial report release on November 20.

A year ago when releasing the financial report for the third quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, concerns about its business in China were raised due to export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government, causing Nvidia's stock price to drop, even though the company's performance exceeded expectations and guidance was bright. However, the following two financial reports drove Nvidia's stock price up as the company continued to achieve healthy growth in revenue and profit driven by strong demand for AI graphics processing units (GPUs).

However, when releasing the latest quarterly financial report in August this year, investors seemed concerned about the relatively slower growth reported by the company. It is worth noting that Nvidia's revenue growth in the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year slowed compared to the previous three quarters. Despite doubling revenue year-on-year and significant profit growth, Wall Street has become accustomed to higher growth expectations.

Furthermore, Nvidia's revenue guidance for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year is $32.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of around 80%. This indicates that its revenue growth rate is no longer doubling from the same period the previous year. However, from a broader perspective, Nvidia's stock has tripled in the past year, even after experiencing short-term volatility following quarterly financial report releases.

This is not surprising, as recent market dynamics indicate that Nvidia remains the leader in the AI chip field, and this market shows no signs of slowing down. Therefore, when Nvidia releases its latest quarterly financial report, investors should focus on the bigger picture.

Nvidia's slower growth compared to the previous few quarters is understandable given the significantly higher revenue base. Nevertheless, a 80% year-on-year growth in quarterly revenue is still a remarkable achievement, especially considering that competitors like AMD lag behind in the AI chip market and find it difficult to seize market share.

For example, AMD (AMD.O) in the third quarter of 2024, its revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to $6.8 billion, with datacenter business revenue increasing by 122% year-on-year to $3.5 billion. However, compared to Nvidia's datacenter revenue in the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year increasing by 154% year-on-year to $26.3 billion, this growth seems relatively modest.

In other words, despite Nvidia's higher revenue base, its growth rate is still faster than AMD's. This is because Nvidia is the leading supplier of AI chips, with a market share as high as 95%. More importantly, this dominant position seems likely to continue, as demand for Nvidia's new generation Blackwell AI processor is expected to outstrip supply in 2025. This is not surprising because these chips are still technologically superior to AMD's products.

Analysts are optimistic about the sales prospects of Nvidia's Blackwell processor. According to a report by Morgan Stanley released through Tom's Hardware, the company may sell these chips worth $200 billion next year. If this forecast comes true, Nvidia's revenue for the next fiscal year could far exceed market expectations.

Nvidia is expected to double its revenue in the 2025 fiscal year from the previous year's $60.9 billion. Analysts expect its revenue to grow by another 43% in the next fiscal year, but the strong demand for the Blackwell processor may easily surpass this expectation.

Therefore, if Nvidia provides guidance for the current quarter that exceeds expectations based on the successful launch of the Blackwell processor, even though its stock price has seen significant gains this year, it may bring more upside potential to this AI stock.