Meituan-W (03690.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year in late November. Benefiting from the demand for in-store, hotel, and travel services, as well as flash purchase needs, the reduction of losses in new businesses (brokerage estimates related businesses' losses will decrease from over 5.1 billion to nearly 1.8 billion yuan during this period compared to the same period last year) and improved competition in the in-store business, a comprehensive forecast from nine brokerages shows that Meituan's non-GAAP adjusted profit for the third quarter of 2024 is expected to range from 11.01 billion to 13.768 billion yuan, representing an increase of 92.2% to 140.4% compared to 5.727 billion yuan in the same period of 2023, with a median of 12.684 billion yuan, an annual growth of 1.21 times.

According to forecasts from five brokerages, Meituan's profit for the third quarter of 2024 is expected to be between 10.358 billion and 11 billion yuan, an increase of 188% to 206% compared to 3.593 billion yuan in the same period last year. The median is 12.684 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.21 times, while the median of 10.726 billion yuan is a year-on-year increase of 1.99 times. This website aggregates forecasts from nine brokerages, estimating that Meituan's revenue for the third quarter of 2024 will be between 91.448 billion and 92.387 billion yuan, up 19.6% to 20.8% compared to 7.6467 million yuan in the same period of 2023, with a median of 92.056 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.4% year-on-year increase. Investors will focus on the latest operational and strategic guidance from Meituan's management, including preferred operational trends, expansion of self-operated Xiaoxiang supermarkets, operational leverage (unit economic efficiency), gross margin, overseas business plans and progress, as well as share buyback plans.

[New Business Reduces Losses, Profit Improves]

Goldman Sachs estimates that Meituan's revenue for the third quarter will be 91.638 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year. The core local business revenue is expected to be 68.387 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19% (adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise 35% to 13.6 billion yuan); new business revenue is expected to be 23.552 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year (with an adjusted EBITDA of -1.834 billion yuan, compared to over -5.1 billion yuan in the same period last year); the estimated revenue for the takeaway business is 45.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% (adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise 33% to 8.266 billion yuan, and the corresponding EBIT gross margin for related business is 18.2%, with an adjusted EBIT per order of 1.35 yuan). Goldman Sachs expects Meituan's revenue from in-store, hotel and travel, and ticketing businesses in the third quarter to be 15.88 billion yuan, an increase of 24% year-on-year (with adjusted EBITDA estimated to be 5.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%).

Nomura expects Meituan's revenue for the third quarter to be 92.14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. It anticipates revenue from takeaway, in-store and hotel travel, Meituan flash purchase, and new businesses to exceed 45.6 billion (up 15% year-on-year), 16 billion (up 25% year-on-year), over 7 billion (up 38%), and over 23.47 billion yuan (up 25%) respectively. The firm estimates that Meituan's Non-IFRS operating profit in the third quarter will be 12.098 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 143%), with the Non-IFRS operating profits for takeaway, in-store and hotel travel, Meituan flash purchase, and new businesses estimated at 8.576 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), 5.479 billion (up 36% year-on-year), -0.229 billion, and -1.728 billion yuan.

htsc released a research report forecasting Meituan's revenue for the third quarter to increase by 21% year-on-year to 92.1 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit expected to increase by 96% year-on-year to 11.2 billion yuan. Projections for revenue from 2024 to 2026 are 327.3 billion, 382.2 billion, and 442.1 billion yuan respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of 40.2 billion, 58.8 billion, and 75.2 billion yuan.

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This website aggregates forecasts from nine brokerages, estimating that Meituan's Non-GAAP adjusted profit for the third quarter of 2024 will be between 11.01 billion and 13.768 billion yuan, an increase of 92.2% to 140.4% compared to 5.727 billion yuan in the same period last year, with a median of 12.684 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.21 times year-on-year growth.

Brokerage │ Forecast for non-International Financial Reporting Standards adjusted profit (RMB) for Q3 2024 │ Year-on-year change

Citi │ 13.768 billion yuan │ +140.4%

Credit Lyonnais │ 13.115 billion yuan │ +129%

Morgan Stanley │ 13.071 billion yuan │ +128%

Bank of America Securities │ 12.8 billion yuan │ +123.5%

建銀國際 │ 12.684 billion yuan │ +121%

Nomura │ 12.105 billion yuan │ +111.4%

bocom intl │ 11.357 billion yuan │ +98.3%

htsc │ 11.2 billion yuan │ +95.6%

goldman sachs │ 11.01 billion yuan │ +92.2%

According to Meituan's third quarter 2023 non-international financial reporting standards, the adjusted profit is 5.727 billion yuan.

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Comprehensive forecasts from five brokerages indicate that Meituan's profit for the third quarter of 2024 will range from 10.358 billion to 11 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 3.593 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 188% to 206%. The median profit is 12.684 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.21 times, and the median profit is 10.726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.99 times.

Brokerage │ 2024 third quarter profit forecast (yuan) │ year-on-year change

goldman sachs │ 11 billion yuan │ +206%

Citi │ 10.777 billion yuan │ +199%

Citigroup │ 10.726 billion yuan │ +199%

Morgan Stanley │ 10.726 billion yuan │ +199%

Bocom Intl │ 10.358 billion yuan │ +188%

According to Meituan's profit of 3.593 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2023.

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This website aggregates predictions from 9 brokerages, estimating Meituan's revenue for the third quarter of 2024 to be between 91.448 billion yuan and 92.387 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 19.6% to 20.8% compared to 7.6467 million yuan in the same period in 2023, with a median of 92.056 billion yuan, indicating a 20.4% year-on-year increase.

Brokerage │ 2024 third quarter revenue forecast (RMB) │ Year-on-year change

Bocom Intl │ 92.387 billion yuan │ +20.8%

Bank of America Securities │ 92.2 billion yuan │ +20.6%

Nomura │ 92.14 billion yuan │ +20.5%

HTSC │ 92.1 billion yuan │ +20.4%

Morgan Stanley │ 92.056 billion yuan │ +20.4%

Citigroup │ 91.914 billion yuan │ +20.2%

Credit Lyonnais │ 91.818 billion yuan │ +20.1%

Goldman Sachs │ 91.638 billion yuan │ +19.8%

Bocom Intl │ 91.448 billion yuan │ +19.6%

Based on Meituan's revenue of 76.467 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2023.