性价比产品直击市场痛点，成本管控支撑盈利高位。公司全面覆盖储能、组串、微型逆变器产品矩阵，是行业内少见的实现三类产品协同增长的逆变器企业，户用产品竞争力尤为凸显。相较于欧美等高端市场，新兴市场对于刚需产品需求更强，在价格敏感性市场，公司主推低压产品，相较高压产品价值量较低，价格具有竞争力，且更能适应新兴市场分布式光储或离网需求。Demand for optical storage has exploded in the short to medium term emerging markets, and demand is sustainable in multiple opportunity markets over the long term. The storage situation in Europe has improved since 24, and there is still a certain gap compared to 23. Demand for inverters from countries other than Europe continues to grow, emerging markets have performed well, and Asia, Africa, and Latin America has become an important market supporting inverter exports.
Regions where inverter exports have increased dramatically, such as Brazil, India, South Africa, and Pakistan, have one or more characteristics such as weak power systems, insufficient transmission and distribution capacity, frequent power restrictions, or high electricity prices. Distributed renewable energy is necessary to support electricity, and some regions have already been able to achieve affordable optical storage, which is very economical. In the long run, Nigeria, Turkey and other places have similar attributes and are expected to become an opportunity market for distributed optical storage development, and emerging markets have high demand potential.
Precise layout of emerging markets, showing the advantages of multiple channels. The company entered the South African market in 2019 and quickly rose to become the leading hybrid inverter brand by 2020, with a market share of over 30%. Benefiting from the early differentiated layout, which mainly focused on emerging markets, the company performed well in markets such as Pakistan, India, and Brazil in the first half of 2024. In terms of channels, the company is deeply tied to excellent channel providers such as ALDO. As of the end of September 2024, the number of known sellers of the company worldwide was 291, according to ENF data. In the field of distributed inverters, the company ranks in the top four in the number of known sellers worldwide among domestic brands, and the channel advantage is remarkable.
Cost-effective products directly hit market pain points, and cost control supports high profits. The company fully covers the energy storage, string, and micro inverter product matrix. It is a rare inverter enterprise in the industry to achieve collaborative growth of the three types of products, and the competitiveness of household products is particularly prominent. Compared with high-end markets such as Europe and the US, emerging markets have stronger demand for newly-needed products. In price-sensitive markets, the company mainly promotes low-voltage products. Compared with high-voltage products, the value is lower, the price is competitive, and is more adaptable to the distributed optical storage or off-grid needs of emerging markets.
While promoting on the sales side, the company broke away from the home appliance industry. As a supplier to the US, it has strong cost control capabilities and fine cost control. With the increase in the proportion of high-profit products such as energy storage battery packs and energy storage inverters, the company's overall profitability is further guaranteed.
Investment suggestions: Based on the future development logic and performance expectations of the company's various sectors, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 11.734, 16.074, and 20.159 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and achieve net profit of 3.109, 4.145, and 5.161 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 73.59%, 33.32%, and 24.51%. The corresponding EPS is 4.82, 6.42, and 8.00 yuan, respectively. The PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 19.9X, 14.9X, and 12.0X. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Storage and installation alone fall short of the expected risk. Emerging markets are falling short of anticipated risks. Overseas political and economic policy risks. Risk of foreign exchange fluctuations.
