Jingu Financial News | Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that the cecep solar energy industry in china is facing adjustments to export tax rebate policies. Starting from December 1, 2024, the Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for solar silicon wafers, batteries, and modules from 13% to 9%. This policy change is not limited to solar energy products, but also covers other products such as copper and aluminum. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of 2024, the export volume of solar modules from china increased by 18% year-on-year, reaching 186.77 GW, but the total export value decreased by 30% year-on-year, down to 22.76 billion dollars, primarily due to a decline in product prices of over 40%, to 0.1 dollars per watt.

Goldman Sachs' analysis of the impact on the industry suggests that the reduction in export tax rebates may put additional pressure on the profits and cash flow of solar energy companies in the short term, especially in December, as companies need time to adjust contract prices and absorb the impact of the reduced rebates. Goldman Sachs estimates that this policy change could lead to an increase of approximately 82 million dollars in cash profits from module exports in December (about 1% of the predicted cash profits for the industry in 2024), considering the average monthly export volume of 20.49 GW over the past 12 months and the spot export price of 0.1 dollars per watt. Among the solar module manufacturers tracked by Goldman Sachs, LONGi Green Energy may face greater short-term profitability challenges, as its overseas business accounts for as much as 91% (data from the first half of 2024), and Goldman Sachs will closely monitor whether it can pass on the rising costs to customers in the coming months.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects that in the coming months, the export prices of solar modules may rise by 4%, as major solar companies are likely to fully pass on the 4% reduction in rebates to overseas customers (especially in developed markets), considering the severe cash loss situation that the entire industry is currently facing (the cash gross margin loss for module manufacturers is between 20% and 30% from October to December), and leading companies will still have attractive price advantages compared to global competitors and the solar economy even after a 4% price increase. Goldman Sachs believes that leading companies with better product quality, brand value, and service are more likely to pass on the impact of the rebate reduction to customers. In contrast, weaker players may face more severe challenges regarding margins and cash flow.