行业β+自身α 合力推动，海外业绩增长前景可观。公司布局海外业务十余年，海外业务发展已步入快车道。2024H1 公司实现海外营业收入15.15亿元，同比增长39.99%，海外毛利率33.82%。2023 年公司新增海外订单数40.10 亿元，同比增长34.11%。公司海外业务盈利能力持续提升，为公司贡献了可观业绩增量。同时，受益于全球电网投资加速，海外电力设备供不应求、需求扩张，国内变压器和开关类产品出口额连年增长。Report summary:
A high-quality enterprise in the electrical field, with a diverse layout of primary and secondary equipment. Established in 1993, Siyuan Electric is a rare private enterprise with power grid qualifications in the industry. The transmission and distribution equipment business covers primary equipment and secondary equipment. The products and R&D have covered many products in the field of power transmission and distribution, such as power automation, high voltage switches, and electric reactors. The company's executives have a professional background, stable equity structure, continuous improvement of talent incentive policies, and great potential.
The construction of in-grid power grids has been accelerated, and off-grid scenery has been installed, and high R&D expenses have been protected. In terms of in-grid business, the investment amount of the State Grid exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time in 2024. As a high-quality private enterprise within the network, the company is expected to fully benefit. In terms of off-grid business, China's PV and wind power installations have maintained a growing trend. The company's off-grid business has grown rapidly with the growth of new energy installations. The CAGR for high-voltage SVG has reached 21.55% in the past five years. The company is expected to further expand related markets in the future. In terms of the competitiveness of the company's own products, the company's R&D expenditure has continued to grow rapidly in the past five years, and product competitiveness has continued to improve. Currently, the company's primary equipment is expanding to high-voltage products such as 750kV GIS, and secondary equipment is currently one of the main suppliers of automation systems for State Grid and South Grid substations. In 2023, the company accounted for the third largest share of the State Grid transmission and distribution equipment tender, and the winning bid amount increased by 60.9% over the same period last year.
Driven by the industry's beta plus own α, the prospects for overseas performance growth are promising. The company has been operating overseas for more than ten years, and overseas business development has entered the fast track. 2024H1 achieved overseas revenue of 1.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.99%, and an overseas gross profit margin of 33.82%. In 2023, the company added 4.01 billion yuan in overseas orders, an increase of 34.11% year-on-year. The profitability of the company's overseas business continues to improve, contributing to a considerable increase in the company's performance. At the same time, benefiting from accelerated investment in global power grids, overseas power equipment is in short supply and demand expansion, and domestic exports of transformer and switch products have increased year by year.
As the company's two basic market businesses, going overseas for transformer and switch products is expected to drive the company's overseas performance to continue to grow rapidly.
Open up a blue ocean of energy storage business and forward-looking layout in the automotive electronics business. In terms of energy storage, the size of the Chinese market has surged, providing an external fertile ground for the company's development. At the same time, the company's own technology is excellent, and in recent years it has successively won bids for dozens of supercapacitor projects such as Wuxi Huishan. The energy storage market is growing rapidly and has the characteristics of immediate demand. The company took advantage of market trends to acquire olefin carbon energy, further expanded its product line, and looked forward to the NEV market. In terms of new energy, the supercapacitors produced by the company have excellent performance and a wide range of application scenarios, meet the needs of power plants, users, etc., and have full market competitiveness. The company has reached cooperation with many car companies, and supercapacitors are already equipped in various models.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.065/2.54/3.034 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 29/23/19 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
