广告收入毛利同比提升，AI 能力加速商业化进程：广告营收300 亿元（yoy+17%），高于彭博一致预期为298 亿元。毛利率52.99%，同比上升0.71pct，环比下降2.65pct。收入增长主要来自于广告主对视频号、小程序及微信搜一搜广告库存的强劲需求，以及巴黎奥运会相关品牌广告的较小幅度贡献。本季度公司发布了使用异构混合架构(MoE)的升级版基础模型腾讯混元Turbo，相较于上一代模型腾讯混元Pro，其训练和推理效率提升了一倍，且推理成本减半。微信搜一搜利用大语言模型的能力，加强了其对复杂检索及内容的理解，提升了搜索结果的相关性，其商业化检索量与点击率均实现了同比增长。Key investment points
Revenue continued to grow, and profit greatly exceeded expectations: 3Q24 achieved operating income of 167.2 billion yuan (yoy +12.1%), lower than Bloomberg's agreed estimate of 167.9 billion yuan; non-GAAP net profit of 59.813 billion yuan (yoy +33.2%), higher than Bloomberg's agreed estimate of 54.4 billion yuan.
The growth rate of domestic games was higher than expected, and international games continued to recover: online game revenue was 51.8 billion yuan, up 12.6% year on year, higher than Bloomberg's agreed forecast of 51.4 billion yuan. Domestic game revenue was 37.3 billion yuan (yoy +14.1%, qoq +7.8%), higher than Bloomberg's agreed estimate of 37 billion yuan. International gaming revenue of 14.5 billion yuan (yoy +9%, qoq +4%) is lower than Bloomberg's agreed estimate of 15 billion yuan. The growth of international games was mainly driven by the strong performance of games such as “PUBG MOBILE” and “Brawl in the Wild”, and “VALORANT” sales increased 30% year over year.
The gross profit of advertising revenue increased year-on-year, and AI capabilities accelerated the commercialization process: advertising revenue of 30 billion yuan (yoy +17%), higher than Bloomberg's agreed estimate of 29.8 billion yuan. The gross profit margin was 52.99%, up 0.71 pct year on year, and down 2.65 pct month on month. Revenue growth is mainly due to strong demand from advertisers for video accounts, mini-programs, and WeChat search ad inventory, as well as small contributions to brand advertisements related to the Paris Olympics. This quarter, the company released an upgraded basic model, Tencent Hybrid Turbo, which uses a heterogeneous hybrid architecture (MoE). Compared with the previous model Tencent Hybrid Pro, its training and inference efficiency was doubled, and inference costs were reduced by half. WeChat Search's ability to use large language models has strengthened its understanding of complex searches and content, enhanced the relevance of search results, and achieved year-on-year growth in commercial search volume and click rate.
The fintech business continued to grow, and financial management and cloud services increased steadily: revenue from fintech and corporate services was 53.1 billion yuan (yoy +2%), lower than the agreed estimate of 54.1 billion yuan. The gross profit margin was 47.79%, up 6.85pct year over year. Among them, revenue from financial services increased year-on-year due to an increase in the number of users and an increase in customer asset holdings, while revenue from payment services declined due to weak consumer spending. The year-on-year increase in enterprise service revenue was due to the increase in cloud service revenue and merchant technical service fees.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's gross margin increased more than expected. We raised our adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 from 205/238.1/269.2 billion yuan to 217.4/240.6/265.3 billion yuan, corresponding to 2024-2026 PE (non-IFRS) of 16/14/13 times (HKD/RMB = 0.93, November 15, 2024). The company still has solid business barriers and a strong ecosystem. Overall business revenue such as video accounts, applets, and fintech continues to grow, so we maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy and regulatory risk; operating data lower than expected; monetization pace lower than expected.
