盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司2024-2026年实现归母净利润5.47、7.35、9.30亿元，EPS分别为1.90、2.55、3.23元/股，根据可比公司的估值情况，结合公司在设备行业积极开拓，以及在气体等OPEX等领域进展较为迅速，因此给子公司2024年24x的PE估值，对应合理价值45.55元/股，维持“买入”评级。Core views:
The performance was in line with expectations. The company released its three-quarter report on October 30. In Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 3.501 billion yuan, +45.23%, net profit to mother of 0.332 billion yuan, +22.58% year-on-year, net profit of 0.309 billion yuan, +54.67% year-on-year; looking at Q3 alone, achieved revenue of 1.649 billion yuan, +54.63% year-on-year, +30.51% month-on-month, +30.51% month-on-month, net profit of 0.227 billion yuan year-on-year, +87.72% Compared to +183.24%, net profit not attributable to mother was 0.195 billion yuan, +55.63% YoY, +99.56% month-on-month, gross profit margin 27.47%, -0.78pct YoY, +0.79pct month-on-month, net profit margin 14.63%, +3.16pct YoY, and +7.55pct month-on-month. The profit margin increased significantly after revenue volume.
Ongoing orders are plentiful, and OPEX's business is progressing markedly. According to the disclosure of the company's three quarterly reports, the company has sufficient orders, the IC industry accounts for about 50%, and the company's non-equipment business (parts and modules, gas and advanced materials, MRO business) increased 83% year on year. Due to the rapid development of the company's non-equipment business in recent years, the proportion of new contracts signed has exceeded 38%, and the company's products and business structure have changed significantly; the company's net operating cash flow for the third quarter was 0.24 billion yuan, up 107% year on year. The company's accounts receivable increased 25% year on year, and revenue increased 45% year on year The increase in receipts was far lower than the increase in current revenue, and repayment efforts increased dramatically.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.547, 0.735, and 0.93 billion yuan per share in 2024-2026, EPS of 1.90, 2.55, and 3.23 yuan/share, respectively. Based on the valuation situation of comparable companies, combined with the company's active development in the equipment industry and rapid progress in OPEX and other fields such as gas, the subsidiary's 2024 PE valuation of 24x corresponds to a reasonable value of 45.55 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Downstream production expansion falls short of expectations; development of new business falls short of expectations; risk of accounts receivable not being recovered.
