盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计景业智能2024-2026年EPS为0.63/1.52/2.10元/股，考虑到公司绝大部分收入来自于核电行业，属于上市公司中较为稀缺的核电与乏燃料标的公司，随着乏燃料项目的逐步推进，公司将迎来收入快速增长的阶段，而且公司快速切入核医疗、军工等领域，新的增长曲线已经形成，故我们给予24年60倍的PE估值，对应合理价值37.62元/股，维持“买入”评级。Performance fell short of expectations due to credit impairment losses. The company released its three-quarter report on October 23. In Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 0.149 billion yuan, +15.66% year over year, net profit to mother of 7.06 million yuan, +255.38% year over year, net profit after deducting non-return net profit of -7.24 million yuan, +42.16% year over year; looking at Q3 alone, achieved revenue of 54.59 million yuan, +49.86% YoY, -23.58% month-on-month, net profit to mother -5.42 million yuan, YoY +36.31% Compared to -122.91%, net profit not attributable to mother was -8.59 million yuan, year-on-year +34.94%, month-on-month -155.06%, gross profit margin 38.39%, year-on-year -7.3 pct, month-on-month -6.3 pct, net profit margin -11.03%, mainly due to credit impairment losses of -12.65 million.
The nuclear-related business is progressing normally. According to the company's semi-annual report, there is strong demand for intelligence in spent fuel post-processing, nuclear fuel component manufacturing and other special processes in the nuclear industry. Among them, the spent fuel post-processing process, the second phase of the demonstration plant project is being successfully delivered, and the third phase of the demonstration plant project and the large plant scientific research project are currently being bid in an orderly manner. Currently, orders have increased significantly; nuclear fuel component manufacturing and other special projects are relatively stable; and the nuclear power sector is the company's key expansion area. The company has invested in research and development of related products and intelligent equipment, and the business continues to expand.
The non-nuclear business is actively being developed. In the military business field, with high-quality product delivery experience in the nuclear industry, the company is actively developing customers related to the field of national defense and military industry; the company has cooperated with domestic and foreign experts in nuclear medicine, actively invested in nuclear drug research, and actively linked the three major fields of intelligent equipment, nuclide applications, and nuclear medicine, laying the foundation for the company to further expand its business in the civilian field.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect Jingye Smart's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.63/1.52/2.10 yuan/share. Considering that the vast majority of the company's revenue comes from the nuclear power industry, which is one of the scarce nuclear power and spent fuel companies among listed companies, the company will usher in a stage of rapid revenue growth with the gradual advancement of spent fuel projects, and the company is rapidly entering the fields of nuclear medicine, military industry, etc., and a new growth curve has been formed. Therefore, we have given a PE valuation of 60 times over 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 37.62 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The risk of excessive business concentration and policy changes, the risk of high customer concentration, the risk of performance fluctuating due to discontinuous order acquisition, and seasonal risk of performance.