Three Wall Street banks have different views on the price of gold in 2025, reflecting a complex economic outlook.

Goldman Sachs published a report titled "Buy Gold" on November 17, stating that gold prices are expected to reach $3000 per ounce by December 2025.

The investment bank pointed out that gold plays a key role in hedging against potential economic tail risks, especially regarding the risk of policy uncertainty in the USA after President Trump's election.

The Goldman Sachs team, led by co-head of global csi commodity equity index research Daan Struyven, stated in the report, "The range of policy changes in the USA in 2025 is unusually wide, enhancing the diversification role of commodities in the portfolio."

They highlighted the potential of gold to protect investors from impacts such as the escalation of trade tariffs proposed by Trump, and presented a basket of investment recommendations, including buying gold and shorting copper.

"Higher tariffs will reduce global growth (which is unfavorable for copper prices) and increase uncertainty (which is favorable for gold prices)," the bank stated, citing price trends during the tariff increases in the USA in 2019.

Since late October, as the risk of disputes over the results of the US election decreased, gold prices have fallen by 7%. At the same time, the market began to price in the prospect of higher interest rates, which is usually unfavorable for gold prices.

In contrast to Goldman Sachs, jpmorgan's head market strategist for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Karen Ward, has a more skeptical view of gold's prospects in her 2025 outlook.

Ward stated, "(Investing in) gold is an important signal that global investors are looking for something in short supply, as they worry about the value of fiat currencies." However, she questioned the investment value of gold, adding, "I just don't think gold is the best choice among things in short supply."

Instead, Ward suggested that investors should look for alternatives that can provide annual returns and recommended assets, such as core infrastructure investments, instead of gold.

The swiss franc-based ubs group has taken a middle ground between Goldman Sachs' enthusiasm and jpmorgan's caution.

Although ubs remains optimistic about the prospects for gold, it warns that the pace of price increases may slow down. As of November this year, gold prices have increased by a cumulative 35%. Nevertheless, it still expects the performance of this precious metal to outperform other csi commodity equity index, approaching $2,900 per ounce by the end of next year.

"Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the relationship between gold and real US interest rates has become very asymmetrical," ubs chief economist Arend Kapteyn and chief market strategist Bhanu Baweja stated in their 2025 outlook on November 18. "Gold prices will rise as US rates fall, but they will not drop too much as US rates rise."

ubs also believes that investors still have significant allocation space, as gold currently only accounts for an average of 1%-2% of investors' portfolios, far below historic peaks.

Despite the differing views of the three investment banks, they all pointed out that central bank demand will be a key support factor.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that due to concerns about financial sanctions and the sustainability of sovereign debt, the amount of gold purchased by central banks has increased fivefold. UBS Group confirmed this and suggested that central banks consider gold as a tool for portfolio diversification and a stable reserve asset.

JPMorgan's Karen Ward also agreed with the statements regarding sovereign-related risks, saying, "In this world of ever-rising government debt, we should be concerned. We should worry about medium-term inflation." Ward acknowledged that broader economic concerns make gold attractive, but she still questions gold's ultimate investment value.

Editor/ping