對於希望借助政策東風的投資者，該行首推中海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)和綠城中國(03900.HK)，該三家公司評級均為「跑贏大市」，目標價各為21、17.5及12元。該行預計該些公司的基本面將在未來三到六個月內隨著市場恢復而改善。Jianyin International published a report indicating that, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market in china showed significant improvement in October, narrowing from a year-on-year decline of 16.3% in September to 1% in October, thanks to strong policy support implemented in September and October. On a monthly basis, sales in "Silver October" decreased by 12.9% compared to "Golden September." As of October, real estate sales dropped by 20.9%, with the sales area declining by 15.8% and the average price dropping by 6.1%. The significant improvement in nationwide sales in October aligns with the industry data released by the China Index Academy. Analyzing by city tier, the recovery of sales in first, second, and third-tier cities is also evident, with year-on-year increases of 22%, a decline of 15%, and an increase of 10%, respectively, and month-on-month growth of 65%, 19%, and 48%. Contract sales announced by developers recovered from a decline of 43% in September to an increase of 1% in October, which directly reflects signs of a sales rebound in October.
According to data from the China Index Academy, sales in November roughly maintained a recovery trend. Due to seasonal factors, the weekly sales growth over the past four weeks (from October 14 to November 10) slowed down from increases of 9.4% and 10.4% to increases of 6.5% and a drop of 20.9%; however, there was a significant year-on-year improvement, with growth rates reaching 4.1%, 8.9%, 36.1%, and 22%. Among different city tiers, first-tier cities continued to lead the recovery, with the sales area over the past four weeks year-on-year at increases of 19.5%, 31.9%, 95.9%, and 109.3%.
The bank pointed out that the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress approved a "debt-to-equity swap" plan worth 12 trillion yuan last week, including 6 trillion yuan for replacing local government debt limits to convert existing hidden debts, 4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan for repaying hidden debts from housing improvement based on original contracts. Although this is not directly related to the real estate industry, the conversion of hidden debts and higher debt limits can free up local government fiscal resources for economic stimulus or support for destocking policies. Monetary and fiscal policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and the overall economy are now in place.
For investors hoping to leverage favorable policies, the bank strongly recommends China Overseas (00688.HK), Longfor (00960.HK), and greentown china (03900.HK). All three companies are rated as "outperforming the market," with target prices of 21, 17.5, and 12 yuan, respectively. The bank expects the fundamentals of these companies to improve in the next three to six months as the market recovers.
