「上葡京」的表现:「上葡京」录得17.8 亿元的收入（博彩为14.2百万元 – 为「新葡京」的73%，非博彩为354 百万元）， 环比增长17.1%。EBITDA 环比增长59.3%到165 百万元。项目每天的经营开支环比增长8.4%到7.6 百万元。「上葡京」的市场占有率约为2.7%。A loss turned into a profit in the third quarter of '24
Review of results for the third quarter of 2024: Australian Pomo Gaming revenue increased 8.7% month-on-month to HK$7.49 billion (same as below) (recovering to 79% in the same period in 2019). VIP gaming revenue, midfield gaming revenue, and slot machine gaming revenue increased 46.2%, 5.6%, and 5.3%, respectively (recovering to 26.9%, 99.6%, and 129.7% in the same period in 2019); non-gaming revenue increased 12.5% month-on-month (accounting for 6.7%). EBITDA increased 19.1% month-on-month to 1.04 billion yuan (109.1% in the same period in 2019). The EBITDA rate increased 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 13.8%. Net profit turned into a profit of 101 million yuan. The Group's total daily operating expenses increased 5.2% month-on-month to 20.9 million yuan. The overall market share in the third quarter increased 1.3 percentage points month-on-month to 13.9%. Cash on the Group's accounts was approximately $4.08 billion, and net liabilities were approximately $22.93 billion.
Performance of “Grand Lisboa” and other casinos: Gaming revenue from “Grand Lisboa” and other proprietary and satellite casinos increased by 9.0%, 9.8%, and 4.1% month-on-month respectively to 1.94 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 2.75 billion yuan (recovering to 69.4%, 84.8%, and 54.3% in the same period in 2019, respectively); their EBITDA was 0.55 billion yuan, 0.34 billion yuan, and 0.035 billion yuan, respectively (Recovered to 104.3%, 97.5%, and 27.2%, respectively, in the same period in 2019).
Performance of “Grand Lisboa”: “Grand Lisboa” recorded revenue of 1.78 billion yuan (14.2 million yuan for gaming — 73% of “Grand Lisboa” and 354 million yuan for non-gaming), an increase of 17.1% over the previous month. EBITDA increased 59.3% month-on-month to 165 million yuan. The project's daily operating expenses increased 8.4% month-on-month to 7.6 million yuan. The market share of “Grand Lisboa” is about 2.7%.
Other key points: According to information, the Group recorded a 20% increase in October; of these, self-operated casinos and satellite casinos grew by 30% and 3%, respectively. In the future, the Group will also increase catering and exhibition measures (“Grand Hall”) and increase the supply of hotel rooms by 10% in the “Grand Lisboa” to attract traffic, thereby boosting revenue.
The target price is HK$3.27, maintaining the buying rating: Aobo has begun to turn a loss into a profit. As Macau continues to recover, we believe the Group will also benefit; at the same time, climbing the “Grand Lisboa” slope will enhance the Group's long-term growth and competitive advantage; we continue to be optimistic about the future development of the Australian Expo.
Maintain a buy rating. The target price is HK$3.27, which is based on the 2025 EBITDA valuation of 8.8 times Grand Lisboa, other self-promoted casinos and satellite casinos, and other businesses.
Important risks: We believe the following are some of the more important risks: 1) economic growth is worse than expected, 2) policy risks, 3) the performance of “Lisboa” falls short of expectations, and 4) market competition.
