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交银国际:维持阿里巴巴-SW(09988)“买入”评级 目标价107港元

Bocom Intl: Maintains a "buy" rating on alibaba-SW(09988) with a target price of HK$107.

Zhitong Finance ·  10:36  · Ratings

Bocom Intl expects alibaba's overall revenue growth rate for the December quarter to be 8.6%, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 57.3 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase.

Intelligence Finance app learned that bocom intl released a research report stating that it has observed an increase in user activity and stickiness of alibaba-SW (09988) TaoTian platform, as well as the potential of acquiring new users through WeChat's interconnection, with a significant certainty of long-term monetization rate improvement potential. The current price corresponds to a 10x PE ratio in 2025, which is attractive in terms of valuation. Based on a 13x PE ratio in 2025, the target price is maintained at 107 Hong Kong dollars, with a 'buy' rating retained.

The report states that the company's total revenue for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year is 236.5 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, which is basically in line with the expectations of both the bank and the market. Adjusted earnings per share are 15.06 yuan, a 4% year-on-year decrease, slightly lower than the bank's expected 3% decrease, but basically in line with market expectations. The GMV of Taobao transactions in the September quarter grew at the same rate as customer management revenue (CMR), indicating a stabilizing trend in monetization rates. Although the bank believes that the investment strategy in TaoTian continues to cause some volatility in monetization rates, the complete quarterly contribution of technical service fees in the next quarter and the penetration of products throughout the site should lead to robust CMR growth. It is expected that the overall revenue growth rate for the December quarter will be 8.6%, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 57.3 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with TaoTian possibly experiencing a 2% year-on-year increase due to the peak season impact, while other businesses continue to reduce losses year-on-year.

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