特朗普提出了对几乎所有国家征收10%至20%的关税计划，对中国则可能实施高达60%的更高关税。布兰奇评论道，随着这些关税加剧贸易紧张局势，Bank of America strategists indicate that Trump's tariff policy may lead to a trade war, which is a major downside risk to global oil demand.
According to Francisco Blanch, a strategist at Bank of America, under the leadership of Trump, due to a series of high tariffs, oil and natural gas prices are expected to decline.
Blanch said: 'America first means commodities second.'
Trump has proposed a tariff plan of 10% to 20% on almost all countries, with China potentially facing higher tariffs of as much as 60%. Blanch commented that as these tariffs intensify trade tensions, it may slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, thereby suppressing demand and prices.
Blanch also mentioned that in theory, Trump's deregulation stance and pro-fossil fuels view should boost production. During his election campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by increasing U.S. oil production, saying at a rally in Detroit at the end of last month: 'We will greatly extract, greatly drill.' He added: 'I will cut energy prices in half in 12 months.'
However, if oil prices fall under widespread tariff imposition, this could mean a slowdown in production, as the impetus for producers to speed up drilling diminishes.
He said, 'In the U.S., prices determine how much output producers will ultimately have, and I think the greater risk to prices actually comes from tariffs. We may face a trade war,' adding that a trade war is a major downside risk to global oil demand.
U.S. oil production has also reached a historical high, with daily production in August reaching 13.4 million barrels, setting a new record for monthly historical highs.
Blanch also acknowledged some upward price risks for commodities.
He mentioned geopolitical tensions including the Middle East and Ukraine. Blanch said that during Trump's first term, strict sanctions were imposed on Iran and Venezuela, and if Marco Rubio were appointed as Secretary of State, this policy might reappear.
"He (Rubio) is a hawkish figure against Iran and Venezuela. I think this could have an impact," he said, suggesting that the US will impose stricter sanctions on these countries, which could push up oil prices.
He added, "Regardless of how the current geopolitical events unfold, I believe they will determine future price trends."
