中金公司认为，目前，中国房地产开发商处于去杠杆的中早期阶段，然而判断实体市场量价下行最快的时期可能已经过去，同时政策端开始更积极的推动行业止跌企稳。对于地产股而言，总体上认为估值的历史底部或已确立，未来主要着眼上行节奏与空间的问题，主要的催化因素将在于增量政策与房价趋势。基准情形下，建议投资者把握2025年可能因实体市场量价下行趋势缓和所出现的地产股的进一步上行。Most mainland real estate stocks are rising, as of the time of writing,$RADIANCE HLDGS (09993.HK)$up 27%,$R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK)$up 5.29%,$SUNAC (01918.HK)$up 2.97%,$GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK)$Increased by 2.25%.
On the news front, on November 18, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and four other departments jointly issued the "Notice on the Cancellation of Relevant Matters of the Ordinary Residential Housing Standards", clearly canceling the ordinary residential housing and non-ordinary residential housing standards, as well as the relevant individual housing transaction tax matters after canceling the standards, this policy will be implemented from December 1, 2024. Industry insiders said that by the end of September, the "Shanghai Seven Regulations" policy has been clarified, in accordance with the national work deployment, Shanghai will promptly cancel the ordinary and non-ordinary residential housing standards, reduce housing transaction costs, and better meet the residents' needs for improving housing.
On the same day, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, Municipal Finance Bureau, and Taxation Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on the Cancellation of Relevant Matters of the Ordinary Residential Housing Standards". The "Notice" specifies that the city cancels the ordinary residential housing and non-ordinary residential housing standards. After canceling the ordinary residential housing and non-ordinary residential housing standards, individuals who sell housing to the public for more than 2 years (including 2 years) will be exempt from VAT. Individuals who sell housing to the public for less than 2 years will be fully liable for VAT at a 5% tax rate.
China International Capital Corporation believes that currently, china real estate developers are in the early stage of deleveraging. However, it is judged that the period when the entity market experiences the fastest decline in quantity and price may have already passed, and at the same time, the policy side is starting to more actively promote the stabilization of the industry. For real estate stocks, it is generally believed that the historical bottom of valuation may have been established, and the focus in the future is mainly on the pace and space of the upward trend, with the main catalyzing factors being incremental policies and the trend of house prices. Under the baseline scenario, it is recommended that investors seize the further upside of real estate stocks that may occur in 2025 due to the easing trend of the entity market quantity and price decline.
Editor/Rocky
