受市场及宏观环境等因素影响，Q2 以来基本面持续承压。公司2024 年Q3 单季度实现营收0.78 亿元，同比减少40.67%；实现归母净利润0.08 亿元，同比减少72.80%。相较于Q1 营收利润高增速，Q2 开始呈现同比下滑趋势延续到Q3，主要系教育考试标准化考点产品及整体解决方案业务面对复杂多变的市场及宏观经济，部分项目落地不及预期。公司业绩还受到摊销员工持股计划费用影响，公司2024 前三季度管理费用为6431.59万元，同比增长49.68%；公司2024 年前三季度毛利率为56.19%，同比提升3.77pct，盈利质量有所提升。Description of the event
Jiafa Education released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.47%; realized net profit of 0.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.62%; realized deducted net profit of 0.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.16%; and achieved a net operating cash flow of 0.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.93%. The company is a leader in the construction of standardized test sites, focusing on the two major business directions of smart testing and smart education. AI helps generate a new round of growth curves.
Incident comments
Due to factors such as the market and macro environment, fundamentals have continued to be under pressure since Q2. The company achieved revenue of 0.078 billion yuan in a single quarter of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.67%; net profit to mother was 0.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72.80%. Compared with the high revenue and profit growth rate in Q1, Q2 began to show a year-on-year downward trend and continued into Q3. The main products and overall solution businesses faced complex and changing markets and macroeconomics, and some projects fell short of expectations. The company's performance was also affected by amortization of employee stock ownership plan expenses. The company's management expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 64.3159 million yuan, an increase of 49.68% year on year; the company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 56.19%, up 3.77 pct year on year, and profit quality improved.
The smart education business is gradually expanding, and the C-side of AI products has already been initially implemented. The company's smart education products include new products such as English listening, physical education, physical and chemical laboratories, etc., and the higher vocational higher education market. With the gradual promotion of various product lines and AI empowerment, smart education is expected to bring future growth to the company. The company's business model changed from a single product sales and overall solution model in the past to a diversified model integrating product sales, solutions, operation services, and leasing services; the customer base expanded from the G and B side to the C side. Smart sports business In the 2024 National Junior High School Sports Examination, the company's “New AI Sports Test” was applied on a large scale to help 85 districts and counties across the country achieve digital management of the entire sports examination process, covering 300+ test sites, 0.5 million+ candidates, and the cumulative number of tests reached 8 million+. In September, Huawei signed a cooperation agreement with the company to jointly explore and promote the development of smart education.
As a pioneer in education informatization in China, the company has won unanimous praise from customers in the industry for its high-quality and stable product delivery all year round. The company is the earliest enterprise engaged in smart testing business in China, and has formed an independent brand advantage within the industry.
Although fundamentals are currently under pressure, AI helps new businesses and products, and is expected to drive the company's transformation. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.671/0.861/1.077 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 0.14/0.185/0.231 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 32/24/19 times. Give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Policy implementation falls short of expectations;
2. Product progress falls short of expectations.
