Source: Wall Street See

Investors are focused on Nvidia's earnings report after Wednesday's trading, seeking signs of strong demand for its next-generation most powerful AI chip, Blackwell, in addition to the company's new inclusion in the Dow components, which may impact the performance of all key stock indices. A batch of major retailers in the US will also report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, providing insight into the health of the economy and consumer spending.

Before the release of the FOMC minutes for the October meeting on Wednesday, the US November NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose to a seven-month high, with optimistic sentiment believing that the Trump administration will change regulations and stimulate more residential construction. US inflation has shown an upward trend recently, with the market focusing on speeches by at least seven Fed officials this week. The Cleveland Fed model shows that rental inflation will not subside until 2026, adding to the difficulty of lowering interest rates in the US. The market is also watching for the next US Treasury Secretary nominee, observing whether they support a comprehensive tariff policy.

Ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech, ECB Vice President De Guindos and Bundesbank President Weidmann expressed more concern about the potential damage to Eurozone economic growth from US trade tariffs than the impact on inflation. The Greek central bank governor, also an ECB policymaker, stated that Trump's potential new tariffs could trigger an economic downturn in Europe, and the ECB's 25-basis-point rate cut in December is now a done deal.

The latest comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda are not hawkish enough, leading to a decline in the Japanese yen. While he hinted at the possibility of further monetary policy tightening, he did not provide clear guidance on the timing of rate hikes. Some analysts believe that Japan's rate hike in December is in doubt again, with the market estimating that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike on December 19 is only slightly above 50%. Japan, known as the 'largest foreign creditor,' reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.9 billion in September to $1.1 trillion.

Trump's trading popularity persists, small-cap stocks turn higher, chip index also rises by over 1%, Tesla boosts Nasdaq with a 1% gain, Nvidia halves its 3.4% drop, Tesla briefly rises by 8.7%, EHang Intelligence rises nearly 10% then turns down 7%, Xiaomi ADR rises nearly 6%, while Bakkt, which Trump media is negotiating to acquire, rises over 160% and triggers a circuit breaker, Oklo, backed by Altman, briefly rises by 23% leading nuclear power stocks.

• US stock indices see only the Dow Jones fall. The S&P 500 index closes up 23.00 points, a 0.39% increase at 5893.62 points. The Dow Jones, closely linked to the economic cycle, falls by 55.39 points, a 0.13% decrease, at 43389.60 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rises by 111.68 points, a 0.60% increase, at 18791.81 points, ending a five-day decline. The Nasdaq 100 index rises by 0.71%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), measuring the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech sector stocks, rises by 0.60%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, rises by 0.1%. The VIX fear index falls by 3.5% to 15.58.

• US industry ETFs generally rise, with the energy sector ETF leading by over 1.3%. Consumer discretionary ETF rises by 0.92%, semiconductor ETF rises by 0.66%, global technology stock index ETF, technology industry ETF, and internet stock index ETF rise by at least around 0.3%, while bank ETFs, regional bank ETFs, and biotechnology stock index ETF fall by a maximum of 0.25%, global aviation industry ETF drops by 2.04%.

• 11 sectors of the S&P generally rise. Energy and telecom sectors rise by over 1%, consumer discretionary and real estate sectors rise by over 0.8%, financials and information technology/tech sectors rise by over 0.2% with the smallest increase, while the industrial sector falls by about 0.2%.

• "Big Tech Seven Sisters" mostly rise. Google Class A rises by 1.6%, Tesla rises by 5.6%, Amazon briefly falls by 0.5%, Meta, the "metaverse", erases nearly 1% of intraday gains, Nvidia falls by 1.3%, Apple rises by 1.3%, Microsoft rises by 0.2%.

• On the news front, Nvidia's stock price falls due to reports of Blackwell chips overheating in servers, Nvidia and Google's Alphabet unit are teaming up to help the latter design quantum computing processors. Reports suggest Trump may seek to relax restrictions on autonomous driving cars, while Musk is laying out plans for "fully driverless" technology; Tesla China responds to rumors of discussing FSD authorization with SAIC, saying, "We have not discussed this with any company."

• Chip stocks rise across the board. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closes up 1.14%, the industry ETF SOXX rises by 1.3%. Nvidia's two times long ETF falls by 2.6%. ASML ADR rises by 1%, Intel rises by 2%, Arm Holdings dips slightly. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rises by 0.8%, Qualcomm rises by 2.5%, KLA Corp rises by 1.2%, AMD rises by nearly 3%, Micron Technology rises by 1.2%, ON Semiconductor rises by 2.7%, Broadcom rises by 0.5%, Wolfspeed rises by 4.8%.

• AI concept stocks mostly go up. Super Micro Computer rises nearly 16%, briefly soaring over 28% in intraday trading, with reports that the company will submit compliance plans on Monday to avoid the risk of delisting from Nasdaq; Serve Robotics edges up by 0.4%, Dell Technologies rises over 3%, BullFrog AI drops over 5.5%, C3.ai rises over 2%, Oracle rises over 1%, CrowdStrike rises by 1.9%, Palantir falls by nearly 7%, Snowflake rises by over 1.1%, Nvidia-backed AI voice company SoundHound AI drops by 2.7%, BigBear.ai rises by over 3.5%.

• Chinese concept stocks outperformed. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.7% at 6613.61 points. In ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose 5.4%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) narrowed its decline to 0.1%, and the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose nearly 2%. FTSE A50 futures continued to rise in overnight trading, up 0.11% to 13448.00 points.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Bilibili rose over 4%, NIO nearly 4%, Miniso, XPeng Motors rose over 2%, and Li Auto rose over 1%. iQIYI fell over 2%, Lufax Holdings fell over 1%. EHang Intelligent Technology rose nearly 10% before turning down by 7%, with third-quarter revenue increasing by nearly 348% year-on-year to 0.128 billion yuan, reaching a new high. Xiaomi Group ADR rose nearly 6%, with third-quarter revenue increasing by 31% year-on-year to 92.5 billion yuan, a record high, and automotive business revenue reaching nearly hundred billion yuan in a single quarter.

• Bitcoin rebounded in regular trading hours after turning down, rising to nearly 0.092 million dollars, and stocks related to cryptocurrencies rose. "Large holders of Bitcoin" Microstrategy surged over 12.9%, popular brokerage Robinhood rose to a three-year high by 8.3%, Block rose by 7.7%, and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase rose by 6.4%. Needham is bullish that changes in the SEC under the leadership of the Trump administration may lead Robinhood to launch more products. Reports suggest that Trump is expected to privately meet with Coinbase's CEO to discuss various government appointments.

• Other key stocks: (1) Trump Media Technology reversed its decline and surged over 16.6% at midday, with reports that Trump will privately meet with the company's CEO. (2) Cryptocurrency concept stock Bakkt Holdings skyrocketed over 162%, temporarily halting trading due to significant volatility, with reports of negotiations for acquisition by Trump Media Technology. (3) Altman-backed Oklo surged 23% at one point, leading the nuclear power/uranium mining concept stocks. Last week, Russia announced restrictions on exports to the USA, which also led to Oklo's rise. Trump's appointment of Chris Wright as Energy Secretary, who is a director of Oklo and CEO of oilfield service provider Liberty Energy, further elevated Liberty Energy by nearly 5%. Billionaire and Citadel founder Ken Griffin revealed investments in nuclear power as the future of the (AI era). (4) Super Micro Computer submitted compliance plans to Nasdaq, with shares surging 20% after hours.

Awaiting UK and Eurozone CPI and other inflation data, the pan-European index fell slightly on Monday after four consecutive weeks of declines. The retail sector did poorly, with mining stocks leading gains, and national indices showing mixed performance, with the Italian banking index falling by over 2.4%.

• The STOXX 600 index in Europe fell by 0.06% to 502.84 points. The Euro STOXX 50 index fell by 0.09%, while the FTSE All-World 300 index rose by 0.06%.

• In key stocks, Yuexin Bank fell by over 2.7%, and North Bavarian shares rebounded by over 9%. BE Semiconductor Industries closed down by 3.32%, ASM International by 2.23%, and ASML Holding by 0.85%. The Denmark OMX Copenhagen 20 Index fell by 0.63%, weight-loss drug supplier Zealand Pharma fell by 6.11%. The "European version of Ele.me" Delivery Hero fell by 4%, seeking to raise approximately 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion dollars from an IPO for Talabat in Dubai.

• The German DAX 30 index fell by 0.11%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.12%, the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 1.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.57%.

The morning decline attracted large buyers into the market for commodities, reversing the downward trend of US Treasury prices. Both the two-year and ten-year yields fell by nearly 2 basis points, but are not far from the multi-month highs. The 30-year long-term bond yield briefly rose to 4.68%, reaching the highest level in nearly six months since May 31. The two-year German bond yield rose by approximately 6 basis points:

• US Treasuries: At the close of New York on Monday, the yield on the 10-year US benchmark Treasury fell by 1.97 basis points, to 4.4197%, approaching the highest level since May 29 as of November 15, at 4.5007%. The yield on the two-year US Treasury fell by 1.89 basis points to 4.2844%, while the 30-year US Treasury yield turned lower at the close.

• Eurozone Bonds: At the close of the European market on Monday, the German 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, rose by 1.8 basis points to 2.373%, while the two-year yield rose by 5.9 basis points to 2.181%. The French 10-year bond yield rose by 1.8 basis points to 3.103%. The Italian 10-year bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 3.566%. The UK 10-year bond yield fell by 0.6 basis points to 4.465%; the two-year UK bond yield rose by 1.8 basis points to 4.417%.

The US Dollar Index is approaching 106, moving away from the highest level in over a year, while non-US currencies are generally rising. Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy caused the Japanese yen to briefly fall below 155. The offshore Renminbi saw a V-shaped rebound and rose above 7.23 yuan, while Bitcoin briefly turned lower during US stock trading hours, but rose again to nearly 92,000 USD by the close:

• USD: The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 0.5% to nearly 106, continuing to move away from the highest level reached last Thursday in over a year.

• Non-US Currencies Rise: The euro against the dollar briefly rose above 1.06 to the highest level since last Tuesday, continuing to move away from a one-year low. The British pound against the dollar rose by as much as 0.6%, staying above 1.26, moving away from a five-month low. The Australian dollar against the US dollar rose by 0.5% to nearly 65.

• Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy has led to the weakening of the Japanese yen: The Japanese yen against the US dollar fell by 0.7% pre-market and briefly slipped below 155, not far from a four-month low. Last Friday, the yen had stopped a four-day decline.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore Renminbi against the US dollar fell by a deepest 150 points pre-market and dropped below 7.25 yuan, but then rose steadily, turning positive during the day and rising by a hundred points after the US stock market's midday, breaking above 7.23 yuan.

• Cryptos: The largest cryptocurrency leader, Bitcoin, rose over 2% in pre-market trading on the US stock market, then saw a significant narrowing of the increase. It briefly turned down during regular trading hours and expanded its gains towards the end of the session, approaching $0.092 million. The second largest, Ethereum, rose over 3%, standing above $3160.

The largest oil field in Western Europe, located in Norway, temporarily suspended production due to a power outage. Coupled with the tense Russia-Ukraine conflict causing supply concerns, international oil prices rose over 3% or over $2. This drove expectations of heating demand, leading to a roughly 5% increase in New York natural gas and nearly 3% increase in European natural gas.

• US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed up $2.14, a gain of over 3.19%, at $69.16 per barrel.

• Brent Oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed up $2.26, an increase of 3.18%, at $73.30 per barrel.

• On the news front, UBS believes that the short-term North Sea crude oil market may experience supply tightening, as the physical supply of North Sea crude oil supports the Brent crude oil futures market. Both oil prices fell over 3% last week due to concerns about oversupply next year.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX December US natural gas futures rose by about 4.98% to $2.9730 per million British thermal units. Weather forecasts show that the US will cool down at the end of November and early December, indicating the possibility of an increase in heating demand. The European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 2.91% to €47.080 per megawatt-hour, hovering near a yearly high.

The softening US dollar and the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine have both driven the largest increase in the price of safe-haven gold since August, halting a six-day consecutive decline and moving away from a two-month low. Last week, gold prices saw the largest single-week decline in over three years due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow down its pace of interest rate cuts. Aluminum prices fell by 1.6%, while lead and nickel rose over 1%.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.78% to $2615.90 per ounce at the closing bell. Spot gold reached nearly $54 or a 2.1% increase at midday in the US stock market, surpassing $2610. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to rise to $3000 next year.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 2.367% at the close, to $31.2450 per ounce. Spot silver rose to a high of 3.5% back above $31, reaching a one-week high.

• The weakening dollar led to a general rise in London industrial metals: LME copper futures closed up $70, +0.8%, at $9072 per ton. However, LME aluminum futures fell $42, -1.6%, to $2608 per ton. LME zinc futures rose $4, to $2952 per ton. LME lead futures rose $34, +1.7%, to $1991 per ton. LME nickel futures rose $189, +1.2%, to $15729 per ton. LME tin futures rose $281, approximately +1%, to $29023 per ton.

• COMEX copper futures rose 1.39%, to $4.1240 per pound. Shanghai tin night trading rose over 1%, Shanghai zinc rose over 0.7%, most of the domestic futures night market closed higher, with coke and iron ore up at least 0.9%, while palm oil and caustic soda dropped by at least 1.7%.

• Bank of America's commodity strategist Francisco Blanch stated that Trump's tariff policy is likely to drag down commodity prices, with 'America first' meaning commodities come second, and the biggest risk coming from tariffs.

Editor / jayden