Investors are closely watching the potential impact of the Trump administration's global trade policies on the stock market.
According to the financial app, since the US presidential election, S&P 500 index companies have considered tariffs as a key policy issue in discussions with analysts. According to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, investors are closely monitoring the potential impact of the Trump administration's global trade policies on the stock market.
RBC Capital Markets' US stock market strategist, Lori Calvasina, pointed out in a report on Monday, "The US stock market is finally paying more attention to tariff issues." Her team of analysts studied the content of S&P 500 company performance conference calls and found that "tariffs and trade policies are the most frequently mentioned issues."
Calvasina stated that companies in most major industries mentioned tariff issues, especially in non-essential consumer goods, medical care, industrial, and materials industries. Some companies mentioned that in the past they were able to pass on tariff costs to consumers, or could do so in the future, "which exacerbates our concerns about the return of inflation."
During Trump's previous term, the industrial sector was one of the most severely impacted industries. RBC's report believes that the valuation of this sector is currently too high. Despite the sector's strong performance shortly after the November 5 elections, the recent days have seen a significant decline, no longer one of the "best performing sectors post-election."
In recent performance conference calls, many companies mentioned their experience in dealing with tariffs imposed by the previous Trump administration on China, and how to adjust production and procurement strategies to cope with possible tariff changes in the future. However, Calvasina expressed concerns about this. She pointed out that many companies only mentioned China, overlooking other countries and regions that tariffs may involve. "For tariffs on goods from other countries, companies seem to have not given sufficient consideration or discussion."
Despite a strong rebound in the US stock market after the election results were announced, the three major indices fell last week. According to Dow Jones market data, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.1% last week, narrowing the cumulative increase in November to 2.9%.
Calvasina said, "Over the past week, we are increasingly convinced that the S&P 500 index may have started a 5% to 10% pullback." She added that the rapid rise in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds due to concerns about inflation and the US deficit is putting pressure on the market.
As of Monday afternoon, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds has shown an upward trend this month and this quarter, with the latest data at 4.43%. Meanwhile, most US stocks rose on Monday midday, with the S&P 500 index up 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping slightly by 0.1%. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, except for slight declines in the medical and industrial sectors, the other sectors all rose.
The medical sector plummeted significantly over the weekend, due to Trump's nomination of Robert Kennedy to be the Secretary of Health and Human Services, which the market reacted negatively to.
Calvasina concluded that although many companies have stated in recent earnings conference calls that it is still too early to assess the specific impact of the new government policies on their business, investors' concerns about potential adverse effects of Trump's policies are emerging prematurely.