美联储这一基准隔夜利率目前在4.50%-4.75%区间，今年迄今已经下调了75个基点。Nomura predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice more next year, and then pause rate cuts until March 2026.
Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the December policy meeting. This makes it the first global brokerage to hint at a rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve following Trump's election victory.
Nomura Securities now predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates twice in March and June 2025, each time by 25 basis points. The brokerage keeps its forecast for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.125% until next year.
The Federal Reserve's benchmark overnight rate is currently in the range of 4.50% to 4.75%, having been cut by 75 basis points so far this year.
Meanwhile, other global brokerages including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month.
Nomura Securities believes that with ongoing economic growth and the potential for further inflation, policymakers have recently expressed hawkish views. This further indicates that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, so the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening cycle next month.
Previously, as Trump's presidential election victory sparked significant political changes, the Federal Reserve became increasingly hesitant to cut rates.
As the president-elect may push for tax cuts, increased tariffs, and crackdowns on immigration, Wall Street is trying to digest expectations of potential inflation pressures intensifying over the next year.
"We currently expect tariffs to raise actual inflation before next summer, and the risk tends towards an earlier and longer pause in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve," Nomura Securities stated in a report last Friday.
Data from last week showed that as of October, US consumer prices (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but in line with economists' expectations.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now believe there is a 34.7% chance of the Fed pausing rate cuts in December.
Nomura Securities expects that after a possible rate cut in June next year, the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts long term until March 2026.
Editor/rice
