根据业绩会，《魔兽世界》的日活跃玩家数量比关停前增加50%，《炉石传说》活跃玩家数量增长150%以上。老游戏《梦幻西游》基本稳定，8 月是今年第二高的月份。除此以外，《第五人格》营收创历史新高，并且全球在线玩家数量也创下新高。热门游戏《第五人格》和《永劫无间》端游人气不减，展现了网易游戏的长线运营能力。新游戏方面，《漫威争锋》和开放世界动作冒险RPG《燕云十六声》将于12 月上线。24Q3 revenue fell 4% year over year, and profits were affected by exchange gains and losses. In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of 26.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Non-GAAP net profit was 7.5 billion yuan, down 13% year on year; non-GAAP net profit margin was 29%, down 3 pcts year over year. Exchange losses reached 1.06 billion yuan this quarter, compared to 0.4 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Gaming: Mobile game revenue growth is impressive. In 24Q3, online game business revenue was 20.2 billion yuan, down 1% year on year. Among them, mobile game revenue was 14.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The decline was mainly due to the high base for the same period last year. PC gaming revenue was 5.9 billion yuan, up 29% year over year. PC games are growing well, mainly due to the return of World of Warcraft and major PC games such as Eternity. Deferred revenue was 15.5 billion yuan, up 10% year over year.
The company's game business is gradually stabilizing, and the new game focuses on “16 Sounds of Yan Yun”. Blizzard related:
According to the results, the number of daily active players in “World of Warcraft” increased by 50% compared to before shutdown, and the number of active players in “Hearthstone” increased by more than 150%. The old game “Journey to the West” is generally stable, with August being the second-highest month of the year. In addition to this, “Fifth Personality” has reached a record high in revenue, and the number of online players worldwide has also reached a new high. The popularity of the popular games “The Fifth Personality” and “Eternity” has not diminished, demonstrating NetEase's ability to operate games in the long term. In terms of new games, “Marvel vs.” and the open world action-adventure RPG “The Sixteen Sounds of Yan Yun” will launch in December.
You Dao: Revenue increased 2% year over year, and learning services were restructured and optimized. In 24Q3, revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, up 2% year over year. Among them, revenue from learning services was 0.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. It was mainly due to business restructuring and optimization, and the adoption of more selective customer acquisition methods. Smart device revenue was 0.32 billion yuan, up 25% year over year. The increase was mainly due to the launch of new products. Revenue from advertising services was 0.49 billion yuan, an increase of 46% over the previous year. There is a way to increase the application of AI technology in advertising.
Cloud Music: Profitability levels continue to rise. In 24Q3, Cloud Music's net revenue was 2 billion yuan, an increase of 1% over the previous year. In 24Q3, Cloud Music's gross margin was 32.8%, up 5.6 pcts year over year.
Risk warning: policy risk; risk of delays in the launch of new products; fierce competition in the game market.
Investment suggestions: The company's old games are gradually stabilizing; game production capabilities are strong, game reserves are sufficient, and pay attention to the progress of the new game “16 Sounds of Yan Yun”. Considering the impact of exchange profit and loss, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's adjusted net profit for 24-26 was 32/36.1/38 billion yuan (11%/7%/8% reduction), respectively. Considering the profit reduction, we gave 13-15xPE for 25 years, and lowered the target price to HK$157-181 (-22%/-22%). It is recommended to continue to monitor NetEase game adjustments and new game performance, and continue to maintain the “superior to the market” rating.
