该行表示，考虑到国内电商业务商业化策略稳步推进以及其他非核心业务持续减亏，该行调整了盈利预测，该行预计公司FY2025-2027财年营收分别为10,059/11,106/12,228亿元，归母净利润分别为1,243/1,323/1,498亿元，Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为1,531/1,667/1,881亿元，对应摊薄EPS为6.2/6.6/7.5元，对应P/E为13x/12x/11x，对应Non-GAAPP/E为10x/9x/8x；根据SOTP估值法，该行给予2025财年阿里巴巴合计目标市值20,556亿元，对应目标价107元人民币/115港元，维持“买入”评级。Golden Shine Financial News | Sealand Securities issued a research report, alibaba (09988) announced the FY2025Q2 financial report (corresponding to the 2024Q3 calendar year), achieving revenue of 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -3%); operating profit of 35.2 billion yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -2%), adjusted EBITDA of 47.3 billion yuan (YoY -4%, QoQ -7%), net income of 43.5 billion yuan (YoY +63%, QoQ +81%), attributable net income of 43.9 billion yuan (YoY +58%, QoQ +81%), Non-GAAP net income of 36.5 billion yuan (YoY -9%, QoQ -10%).
The bank indicated that in 2024Q3, Taotian Group's revenue achieved a 1% year-on-year growth to 99 billion yuan, with customer management revenue increasing by 2%. Online GMV growth benefited from a double-digit year-on-year increase in order volume, but partially offset by the average order amount decrease, overall realization rate remained stable; in 2024Q3, Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to 29.6 billion yuan, public cloud revenue achieved a double-digit year-on-year growth, AI-related revenue realized triple-digit year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
The bank further pointed out that as of the quarter ended September 30, 2024, alibaba repurchased 0.414 billion common shares for a total of 4.1 billion US dollars (equivalent to 52 million American depositary shares); as of the quarter ended September 30, 2024, alibaba still had a remaining repurchase limit of 22 billion US dollars authorized by the board of directors, valid until March 2027.
The bank stated that considering the steady progress of the commercialization strategy of the domestic e-commerce business and the continuous narrowing of losses for other non-core businesses, the bank adjusted its profit forecast. The bank expects the company's revenue for FY2025-2027 fiscal years to be 1005.9/1110.6/1222.8 billion yuan, attributable net income of 124.3/132.3/149.8 billion yuan, Non-GAAP attributable net income of 153.1/166.7/188.1 billion yuan, corresponding diluted EPS of 6.2/6.6/7.5 yuan, corresponding P/E ratios of 13x/12x/11x, corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 10x/9x/8x; based on the SOTP valuation method, the bank assigns alibaba a total target market cap of 2055.6 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, with a corresponding target price of 107 Chinese Yuan / 115 Hong Kong Dollars, maintaining a "buy" rating.
