考虑到国际航班恢复及机队增长，测算下，供给增速约为6.0%/4.9%/4.7%，其中国际运力供给增速约为20.7%/13.4%/11.5% 3）跨境电商旺季将至，国际货运运价景气有望持续提升：2024Q4，传统旺季运价弹性有望显现。中长期来看，供需增速错配有望持续提升运价景气。Key points of investment:
China Eastern Airlines Logistics: leading air cargo, the international cargo boom contributed to a high increase in performance. China Eastern Airlines Logistics, formerly known as Shanghai Oriental Yuanhang Logistics Co., Ltd., was established in August 2004 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2021, becoming the first domestic listed freight company. The company has built a comprehensive and three-dimensional logistics network through SkyNet+Ground Network to provide customers with one-stop integrated logistics solutions from delivery, warehousing, transportation to distribution. Currently, the company's business mainly consists of three parts: air express, integrated logistics solutions and integrated ground services. The revenue share in 2023 was 44%/44%/12%, respectively, and the gross profit ratio was 51%/28%/22%, respectively. The air express business is the company's basic market. Among them, the freighter business enjoys the flexibility of international freight prices, and the integrated logistics solution enjoys a boom in cross-border e-commerce logistics. It is the company's second growth curve. The ground integrated service card is the core cargo terminal resource, and the profitability is relatively stable.
Air cargo supply and demand have improved, and the freight rate boom is expected to continue to rise. 1) Demand: Domestic demand increases with economic recovery, and cross-border e-commerce drives the growth in demand for international transportation. According to estimates, overall air cargo demand in 2024-2026 increased 11.2%/11.1%/9.9% year on year. Among them, the rise in cross-border e-commerce is expected to drive a 21.4%/19.7%/16.0% year-on-year increase in international air transport demand; 2) Supply: Airliner abdominal cabin growth is slow, and the overall increase in cargo capacity supply is manageable.
Considering the resumption of international flights and fleet growth, according to estimates, the supply growth rate is about 6.0%/4.9%/4.7%, and the international capacity supply growth rate is about 20.7%/13.4%/11.5% 3) As the peak season for cross-border e-commerce approaches, the international freight rate boom is expected to continue to rise: 2024Q4, the traditional peak season freight rate flexibility is expected to show. In the medium to long term, the growth rate of supply and demand is erroneous, and it is expected that the freight rate boom will continue to rise.
The company's freight rate flexibility is remarkable, and a second growth curve can be expected. 1) The company provides mainline transportation services through the abdominal compartments of 14 freighters under China Cargo and the abdominal compartments of China Eastern Airlines's nearly 800 airliners. With the improvement in industry supply and demand in 2024, the freighter business performance is remarkable. According to estimates, the 10% freight rate fluctuation may affect the annual net profit of 0.526 billion yuan; 2) The company relies on trunk line resources to extend to the supply chain business and is deeply involved in cross-border e-commerce business customers. As cross-border e-commerce platforms expand overseas, the company's integrated logistics business is expected to become the second growth curve; 3) The company's high-quality cargo terminal resources provide comprehensive ground services. As subsequent cargo terminal projects are gradually put into operation, profits are expected to increase steadily.
Investment advice: The company is a leading air cargo company, benefiting from the boom in cross-border e-commerce. Improved demand for air cargo is expected to drive up freight rates. The company's performance can be expected to be flexible. In the medium to long term, the company's card capacity resources, business extension to the industrial chain, and there is room for improvement in revenue and profitability. We estimate that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 3.05/3.67/4.34 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 8.8x/7.3x/6.2x, respectively. Referring to the valuations of comparable companies such as Sinotrans and Huamao Logistics, the average valuation of comparable companies in 2024 is about 11 times, covering the first time to give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. 1) Freight demand growth falls short of expectations; 2) Integrated logistics solutions fall short of expectations; 3) Introduction of freighters falls short of expectations; 4) Cost forecasts fall short of expectations due to drastic changes in oil prices
