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政策+基本面“点火”!港A地产股集体 “嗨翻”,后市如何走?

Policy + fundamentals "ignite"! Hong Kong A-share property stocks collectively "excited", how to go in the future?

Gelonghui Finance ·  Nov 18 12:58

The market is experiencing positive changes.

Boosted by a series of bullish policies and the recovery of the real estate market heat, the real estate sector welcomed a surge in limit-up today.

In the A-share market, the real estate sector showed strong performance. As of the time of publication, greenland holdings corporation, black peony, financial street holdings, guangdong shirongzhaoye, tianjin realty development, shenzhen overseas chinese town A and others hit the limit-up.

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In the Hong Kong stock market, mainland real estate stocks led the gains. On individual stocks, as of the time of publication, radiance hldgs surged over 11%, r&f properties, sunac, china vanke, midea real est, cifi hold gp, china res land and others rose successively.

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Bullish policies continue to be introduced.

The sustained catalysis of policies is a key factor for the outbreak of the real estate sector this time.

After the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an announcement on promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market's relevant tax policies last Wednesday, Shanghai took the lead in responding and introduced relevant implementation measures.

This morning, the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Commission and four other departments jointly issued the "Notice on the Cancellation of Matters related to the Standard of Ordinary Residence".

The "Notice" detailed regulations on personal housing transaction taxes:

Regarding personal income tax on the transfer of personal housing, if the individual fails to provide complete and accurate original value certificates for the house being transferred, and cannot correctly calculate the original value of the house and the tax payable, the personal income tax will be assessed according to regulations, with 1% of the transfer income to be used as the assessed amount of personal income tax.

In terms of personal real estate sales value-added tax, individuals selling a house bought for 2 years or more (including 2 years) are exempt from VAT, while individuals selling a house bought for less than 2 years will pay VAT at a full rate of 5%.

Regarding personal deed tax on purchasing houses, for individuals buying the sole family residence (including the purchaser, spouse, and underage children), with an area of 140 square meters or less, the deed tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 1%, and for areas larger than 140 square meters, the deed tax will be reduced at a rate of 1.5%. For individuals buying a second family residence, with an area of 140 square meters or less, the deed tax will be reduced at a rate of 1%, and for areas larger than 140 square meters, the deed tax will be reduced at a rate of 2%.

Market analysis believes that the significant reduction in deed tax, value-added tax, and personal income tax and other taxes and fees will help reduce the economic burden on homebuyers and stimulate the liquidity of the second-hand housing market.

Yan Yuejin, Deputy Director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that starting with the "Recognize Houses, Not Debt" policy last year, Shanghai has been continuously adjusting and optimizing policies in the administrative, land, financial, and tax fields. The strong policy measures and wide coverage effectively support the release of demand for rigid and improved housing, and the current real estate policies in Shanghai have entered the most relaxed period in history.

In fact, recently, various local governments have continuously introduced bullish policies for the real estate market, forming a policy synergy to jointly promote the development of the real estate market.

On November 15, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Guangzhou issued a notice on "Synchronous Sale of Configured Parking Spaces and Garages with Commercial Housing", explicitly allowing the synchronous sale of commercial housing and configured parking spaces and garages in the jurisdiction (for those that have completed initial registration).

On November 14, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Changsha issued a notice on "Further Clarification of the City's Real Estate Transaction Related Policies", explicitly stating that the city's commercial residential properties with a "Real Estate Ownership Certificate" can be listed for trade.

The market is experiencing positive changes.

Under a series of bullish policies, the heat of China's real estate market is gradually picking up.

Last Friday, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the month-on-month decrease in sales prices of commercial residential properties in various tier cities narrowed or turned positive. Among them, the month-on-month decrease in sales prices of new commercial residential properties in tier-one cities was 0.2%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The month-on-month decline in sales prices of second-hand residential properties in tier-one cities turned from a 1.2% decrease last month to a 0.4% increase, marking the first positive change in nearly 13 months.

At the same time, the monthly housing price questionnaire survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics on 70 large and medium-sized cities in October showed that the proportion of interviewed practitioners expecting the sales prices of new and second-hand residential properties to remain stable or rise in the next six months continued to increase, reaching 75.9% and 60.4% respectively, an increase of 17.6 and 15.0 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates that market participants' expectations for the real estate market are undergoing a positive change, with optimism spreading in the market.

Furthermore, looking at the national sales indicators for commercial housing, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 779.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. However, the cumulative decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to January to September, and has been narrowing for five consecutive months. From January to October, the sales revenue of new commercial housing was 7685.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, with the cumulative decline narrowing by 1.8 percentage points compared to January to September, and has been narrowing for six consecutive months.

These data further prove that the real estate market is developing in a positive direction, with sales gradually improving.

Fu Lenghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and head of the Department of Comprehensive Economic Statistics, stated that there have been positive changes in the real estate market in October. With the further release of the effectiveness of various policies, the momentum to promote the stabilization of the real estate market will be enhanced.

It is worth noting that progress has been made in the guarantee housing work. On November 14th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that the guarantee housing work nationwide is progressing effectively. As of November 13th, a total of 2.85 million sets have been delivered nationwide. This helps safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers, stabilize market confidence, and lays a solid foundation for the stable development of the real estate market.

Looking ahead, CITIC Securities believes that the tax burden on China's real estate market has reached the lowest level in history, especially in first-tier cities where the burden of transaction taxes for improved demand has significantly decreased. This fully reflects the policy of emancipating minds and actively promoting the stabilization of the market. At a crucial moment when expectations for the real estate market are diverging again, new policies can prevent the market from cooling down again.

HTSC stated that reducing property transaction taxes is equivalent to lowering housing prices, which may moderately boost real estate demand once and for a short period. In the medium to long term, the stabilization and rebound of the property cycle may require the support of improvements in economic fundamentals and income expectations. The reduction in property transaction taxes may not be sufficient to drive a sustained rebound in property transactions, but for first-tier and quasi first-tier cities where the supply and demand in the property market have already significantly tightened, it may have a levering effect beyond expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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