看好中长期免税业务布局机会。根据公司季报，公司于报告期内中标哈尔滨太平国际机场、牡丹江海浪国际机场出境免税项目，免税品经营渠道布局进一步拓宽；8 月财政部等五部门联合印发《关于完善市内免税店政策的通知》，通知规定了6 家现有的市内免税店和12 家可转型为市内免税店的外汇商品免税店的管理暂行办法，以及在广州等8 个城市各设立一家市内免税店，公司根据政策要求积极推动相关工作。Performance Overview. The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 8.499 billion yuan, -8.27% year on year, net profit to mother of 0.427 billion yuan, or -34.13% year on year; of these, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, -14.61% year on year, and net profit to mother of 0.134 billion yuan, +2.53% year over year.
The increase in the share of high-margin businesses supports steady profitability. According to the company's announcement, the share of revenue in shopping malls and Ole businesses with high gross margins continued to rise, supporting the company's gross margin to remain steady. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 24 and 24Q3 was 40.17%/38.29%, respectively, -0.98/ -1.1 pct. The 24Q3 sales/management/finance expense ratios were 16.35%/13.02%/2.19%, respectively, +1.81/+1.77/ -0.96pct year on year, and 5.42% net profit margin to mother, +0.9pct year on year.
The asset structure continues to be optimized. Company announcement: (1) It is intended to transfer 100% of the shares of Beijing Wangfujing Department Store Commercial Property Management Co., Ltd. through public listing on the Beijing Property Exchange; (2) to commence the demolition and reconstruction of some housing buildings and annexes of Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd.'s Beijing Xidan Shopping Mall, and to scrap fixed assets with no use value after the demolition of the building. The net loss of fixed assets from this disposal is expected to not exceed 94.72 million yuan.
Optimistic about medium- to long-term duty-free business layout opportunities. According to the company's quarterly report, the company won the bid for the exit duty-free project at Harbin Taiping International Airport and Mudanjiang Hailang International Airport during the reporting period; in August, five departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Notice on Improving the City's Duty Free Shop Policy”, which stipulates the interim management measures for 6 existing duty-free shops in the city and 12 foreign exchange duty-free shops that can be converted into duty-free shops in the city, and the company actively promotes related work in 8 cities including Guangzhou.
Profit forecast: Based on the three quarterly reports, we adjusted the profit forecast. Net profit for 24-26 is 6.1/7.7 yuan, respectively, -14.2%/+14.4%/+10.7%. Considering that the company's taxable business follows steady macroeconomic recovery, the duty-free business has scarce qualifications, and the implementation of a new policy for duty-free shops in the city is expected to support the industry's incremental space. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company 32 xPE for 24, corresponding to a reasonable value of 17.16 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The duty-free business fell short of expectations, competition intensified, and the recovery of taxable business fell short of expectations, etc.
