According to the Zhithong Finance APP, gtja released a research report stating that after Trump takes office as the President of the usa in 2025, china and usa trade may continue negotiations. Unlike in 2018, the current Hong Kong stock market is already priced in, and when compared horizontally, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is at a low. In addition, the current inflation level in the usa remains high, and the tariffs advocated by the Trump administration may need to be implemented slowly. With overseas major central banks continuing to cut interest rates, the constraint on the denominator side of the Hong Kong stock market is becoming marginally looser. On the profit side, the stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy is still a medium- to long-term certainty.

gtja believes that the Hong Kong stock market is primarily upward. In terms of industry allocation, it continues to recommend leading internet stocks in Hong Kong that show improvement in EPS; benefiting from policy support and economic recovery, resilient interest-sensitive industries, including medical care, electronics, autos, new energy fund, and affordable consumer goods; and industries with stable profits and high dividends, including utilities, finance, real estate chain, and telecommunications.

The usa dollar has strengthened in phases, putting short-term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market.

Reviewing the performance of the Hong Kong stock market after Trump was elected President of the usa in 2016, the Hong Kong stock market mainly experienced three phases, driven by domestic corporate profit improvement, disturbances from china-usa trade frictions, and global central bank monetary easing post-pandemic. In the early stages of Trump's election, the Hong Kong stock market benefited from improvements in domestic profits, with the suppressive effect of overseas interest rate hikes being limited.

Additionally, due to the promotion of policies such as the monetization of relocation for urban renewal, the real estate sales data has warmed up. In terms of expanding domestic demand and increasing employment, the State Council proposed to build a pattern that combines "internet plus logistics" on the consumer side.

Overseas, in the early stages of Trump's election as President of the usa in 2016, international trade frictions had not yet escalated rapidly. The Hong Kong stock market continued to rise, with the best performances in sectors such as internet technology, real estate construction, raw materials, and finance.

The trade friction between china and usa began to intensify in 2018, combined with domestic deleveraging controls, the hong kong stock market entered a volatile phase. The trump administration imposed tariffs on imported steel and other commodities in March 2018 and subsequently implemented multiple rounds of tariffs on chinese products, causing the trade friction between china and usa to escalate. Domestically, weak domestic demand and slowing economic growth led to a sideways market in hong kong stocks. The focus of domestic counter-cyclical adjustments shifted from real estate to the manufacturing industry, with the industrial sector and public utilities and telecommunications in hong kong performing relatively well.

After the china-usa trade agreement was signed and the trade friction eased, coupled with an overseas monetary policy easing triggered by the global pandemic, domestic policies were introduced to support domestic demand, and the hong kong stock market continued to rise.

In mid-January 2020, the china-usa phase one trade agreement was signed. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread globally, and the overseas economic outlook turned dark, putting downward pressure on the hong kong stock market. Subsequently, major central banks initiated algo easing policies, significantly increasing overseas liquidity. In late March 2020, a strategy for "dual circulation" and measures to expand domestic demand were proposed, leading to a continuous improvement in confidence towards the recovery of the china economy, and the hong kong stock market kept rising; the internet plus-related, consumer, raw materials, industrial, and medical care sectors in hong kong showed strong performance.

Risk factors: the pace of domestic economic recovery is slower than expected; international geopolitical events are intensifying; fluctuations in overseas recession expectations are causing disturbances.