Analysts point out: "People are truly interested in gold when all other investment categories are not effective."
Trump's victory immediately boosted various markets from the US stock market to bitcoin. However, it may take longer for gold to regain its vitality.
According to data from deutsche bank, gold's performance in the two days following Trump's victory was the worst among at least 13 US presidential election windows. Since election day, the price of gold has dropped nearly 7%.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at bank of america, said, "People are really interested in gold when everything else in the investment category fails to perform." He added, "The US stock market is performing well. You can even see stable returns from low-quality corporate credit. Therefore, it's less likely to seek other sources of portfolio growth."
The decline in gold is a significant reversal from a trend that surged over 30% in the past year, when geopolitical and economic risks attracted a large number of investors, and gold prices reached new highs. Despite the ongoing long-term uncertainty, particularly considering Trump's occasionally unpredictable positions, with the most favorable scenario for gold—a controversial election—failing to materialize, gold's safe-haven appeal has significantly weakened.
In the days following Trump's victory, the strengthening dollar was also a negative factor for gold priced in dollars. Meanwhile, the US economy seems to be in good condition, inflation is slowing down, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to continue large rate cuts.
Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said, "Other aspects of the US economy currently look very strong, and gold will be a contrarian choice. The current sentiment is very low risk, both fundamentally and geopolitically. In such an environment, being contrarian is not easy."
Some investors may not fully agree with Trump's policies, but simply knowing what to expect during Trump's 2.0 term has helped eliminate some of the recent uncertainties that had previously pushed gold to new highs.
The confirmation of the Republican victory also means there will be more space to implement policies that were promoted during the campaign. Trump's agenda, from tax cuts to financial deregulation and tariffs, has driven hedge funds to pour into sectors that may benefit, including large banks and USA industrial stocks.
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said, "We have more attractive places to allocate capital," referring to opportunities in finance and other higher-risk assets.
He said, "Who wants to miss out on Goldman Sachs' 10% rise?"
Since election day, cryptos have soared due to expectations that Trump's policies will boost digital assets. The total assets of iShares bitcoin trust etf and blackrock's spot bitcoin etf surpassed 40 billion dollars for the first time last week. This surge coincides with significant outflow from the world's largest physically-backed gold etf—SPDR Gold Shares.
Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, said, "Trump's victory means we may see a reduction in regulation on cryptos. This should attract at least a portion of funds from gold to cryptos."
However, in the long run, gold still has room to rise. Trump's tough commitments on taxes and tariffs may eventually lead to higher deficits and inflation, which could trigger a return of bid for gold as an inflation-hedging tool.
If a second Trump term disrupts global trade and geopolitics, it may also prompt central banks to continue buying gold to hedge against risks in the dollar reserve system.
Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA, said, "Many reserve managers from 'friendly' and 'neutral' countries towards the USA may be concerned about the more unpredictable US foreign policy and its impact on reserve security."
He added: "The current sell-off is more like a story of buying on dips; since the significant decline after the usa elections, gold has entered a more affordable range."