竞配：福建启动24年海风竞配，规模2.4GW（漳州1GW+福鼎1.4GW）。Recently, the offshore wind industry is undergoing positive changes as observed from public bidding. As a lagging variety in this round of bull market, the industry growth rate is expected to exceed 50% next year.
With the acceleration of global energy transformation, wind energy, as one of the important clean energy sources, is rapidly developing. On the 16th, reporters learned from the Offshore Wind Power Modern Industry Chain Action Conference that this year, China's offshore wind power installed capacity is expected to exceed 45 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. In the first three quarters of this year, offshore wind power added 2.47 million kilowatts, and the cumulative connected capacity reached 39.1 million kilowatts. As of the third quarter of this year, China has consistently ranked first in the world in cumulative offshore wind power installation for three consecutive years, surpassing the total connected offshore wind power of countries ranked second to fifth.
Recently, summary of offshore wind bidding:
Bidding competition: Fujian has initiated the 2024 offshore wind bidding competition with a scale of 2.4GW (Zhangzhou 1GW + Fuding 1.4GW).
Jiangsu is expected to initiate the second phase bidding competition of 8.5GW by the end of this year or early next year.
Bidding:
1) Guangdong - The four projects previously affected by the waterway, totaling 4GW, have initiated tenders for towers/undersea cables; the 7GW provincial projects of the 2023 bidding competition will successively begin various tender phases/approval submissions, with plans to complete the tendering work within the year;
2) Jiangsu - The 2.65GW offshore wind projects previously affected by Jiangsu have successively initiated various tender phases;
3) Shandong Guodian Investment has initiated research and bidding for 1.8GW, including 1.4GW under national management and 0.4GW under provincial management.
4) Liaoning - Provincial management H1 site 800MW has obtained preliminary sea-use approval documents, with 500MW available for research bidding.
5) Hebei - Shan Hai Guan offshore wind phase one 500MW turbine bidding.
Since October, the total bidding volume for offshore wind turbines has reached 2.2GW, with a significant increase in the bidding scale, coupled with 6.3GW of offshore wind bidding in the first three quarters, resulting in a total of 8.5GW of offshore wind turbines bid this year.
Recent public bidding for offshore wind has shown positive changes, and as a lagging variety in this round of bull market, next year's industry growth rate is expected to exceed 50%, compounded by high-quality indicators (high barriers to undersea cables and favorable competitive landscape).
Price update: Currently, suppliers are very firm on their stance, with price increases for blades and castings; the price increase for blades is around 3-5%, and castings are expected to be 5-10%, but it's not finalized yet, and the main engine manufacturers are still negotiating, likely to finalize by the end of this month or mid-next month.
Current industry feedback indicates that the installed capacity for 2025 will exceed expectations, and the recent Qingzhou Seven Towers bid and Fujian's launch of 2.4GW offshore wind competition will further catalyze the sector's prosperity expectations; in 2025, the wind power sector is expected to see both quantity and price rise, with the core leading companies in the sector showing considerable performance elasticity.
Wind power equipment-related companies:
Goldwind Science & Technology (02208): In the 2023 global wind power complete equipment ranking, Chinese wind power enterprises were far ahead, with four of the top five seats. Among them, Goldwind Science & Technology ranked first, with last year's new installed capacity accounting for 13.9% of the global market share. In the first quarter of this year, Goldwind Science & Technology's net income growth rate once dropped significantly, with a net income of only 0.333 billion yuan. The net income attributable to the parent company's shareholders in the semi-annual report was 1.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83%. This means that the company made a significant effort in the second quarter. As of June 30, 2024, Goldwind Science & Technology's total order volume was 38.4GW, of which external orders totaled 35.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 26.40%. Among these, the vast majority of the company's outstanding orders are for specifications of over 6MW, with corresponding orders of 23.17GW, accounting for 65%.
Dongfang Electric Corporation (01072): The company is one of the world's leading suppliers of power generation equipment and power station engineering contractors. In the first half of the year, the 'wind power equipment' sector generated revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Among them, wind power/hydropower equipment generated revenues of 6.7/1.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%/21%. Subsidiary Dongfang Wind Power turned losses around.
China High-speed Transmission (00658) is a conglomerate specializing in the research, development, and manufacturing of high-speed, heavy-duty, and precision gear transmission devices. Its business covers the fields of wind turbine gearboxes, rail vehicle gearboxes, industrial gearboxes, robot reducers, and new energy vehicle gearboxes. In 2023, the company's sales revenue from wind turbine gear transmission equipment business increased by 12.2% to 14.89 billion yuan compared to the previous year. From the customer perspective, the company has significant advantages in customer resources in 2023. Its customers for wind turbine gear transmission equipment products include not only major wind turbine complete set businesses in China, but also internationally renowned wind turbine complete set businesses.
