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小摩:投行在美国大选后的上涨趋势有望持续

Morgan Stanley: The upward trend of investment banks in the usa after the election is expected to continue.

Zhitong Finance ·  09:30

jpmorgan believes that this momentum will continue in the short term, and the good stock market and credit trading environment so far in the fourth quarter also support this momentum.

According to the financial news app, analysts at jpmorgan mentioned in a recent report that it is reasonable for investment bank stocks to rise strongly after the U.S. election, considering the possibility of tax cuts, expected delays in the finalization of Basel III, further dilution, and expectations of investment banking activities, especially mergers and acquisitions.

jpmorgan analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote: "We believe this momentum will continue in the short term, and the good stock market and credit trading environment so far in the fourth quarter also support this momentum."

Overall, the company maintains a "shareholding" position in the investment banking industry.

However, although the final drafting of Basel III may be delayed and not as strict as previous proposals, the potential relaxation of regulations compared to the existing rules will take time to implement. They will not see any changes before the first or second half of 2025.

As goldman sachs (GS.US) and morgan stanley (MS.US) of the usa have already factored in the related bullish trends in their pricing, jpmorgan analysts believe that there is greater upward potential for european banks.

Abouhossein wrote, in the long run, "We prefer European investment banks, which will also benefit from any potential improvement in client activity levels."

Since November 5th, the PE ratio of Goldman Sachs stocks is 12.7 times, while Morgan Stanley's PE ratio is 15.6 times, significantly higher compared to european investment banks deutsche bank (DB.US) at 5.3 times, barclays bank (BCS.US) at 6 times, and even ubs group (UBS.US) at 10.7 times.

It is worth noting that since November 5th, the stock prices of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have each risen by about 12%, surpassing the 2.9% increase in the S&P 500 index. In contrast, deutsche bank fell by 3.7%, ubs fell by 0.2%, and barclays recorded a slight increase of 0.8% during the same period.

31% of Barclays bank's group revenue comes from the USA. Deutsche Bank derives 33% of its investment bank revenue and 17% of its group revenue from the USA.

JPMorgan's long-term global investment banking ranking order is: deutsche bank, ubs, barclays, goldman sachs, industrial bank of france, jpmorgan, and bnp paribas, according to Abouhossein and colleagues. "In Europe, we have shifted our portfolio towards investment banks with higher leverage on non-interest income through our top choices of UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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