该行表示，预计公司FY2024-2026年营收分别为268/310/350亿元，NON-GAAP归母净利润为-0.5/+20.8/+30.6亿元，对应PS分别为2.1x/1.8x/1.6x。公司平台内容生态壁垒深厚，且用户参与度及变现率稳定向上，该行给予其2025年目标单MAU估值200元人民币对应市值701亿元、目标PS2.5X对应目标市值775亿元、SOTP估值726亿元，对应折中目标市值734亿元人民币，2025年目标价174元/188港元，维持“买入”评级。Jinwu Financial News | Sealand Securities pointed out that bilibili (09626) announced its Q3 2024 quarterly report, achieving revenue of 7.3 billion yuan (YoY+26%, QoQ+19%), and an adjusted net income of 0.24 billion yuan, marking the company's first quarterly profit since going public.
The report noted that the company's exclusively authorized game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" performed excellently, driving mobile game business revenue to rise 84% year-on-year to 1.823 billion yuan in Q3 2024. According to the official company WeChat, "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has ranked in the top three of the iOS game sales chart for three consecutive seasons. Additionally, SensorTower data shows that the company's top game "Fate/Grand Order" had an average MAU exceeding 2 million in Q3 2024, with a user retention rate remaining high, 7-day retention rate reaching 38%.
The report further indicated that in terms of advertising business, Q3 2024 revenue grew 28% year-on-year to 2.094 billion yuan, mainly due to the optimization of advertising products provided by the company and increased advertising efficiency. The top five industries contributing to bilibili's advertising revenue are games, e-commerce, digital, internet services, and autos, with education, maternal and child care, and cultural tourism industries experiencing over 100% year-on-year growth in advertising on bilibili. At the same time, in Q3 2024, daily viewing users for consumer content on bilibili exceeded 40 million, and during the singles' day sales period, bilibili's sales trade volume increased by more than 154% year-on-year.
The report stated that the company is expected to achieve revenues of 26.8/31/35 billion yuan for FY2024-2026, with NON-GAAP net income of -0.5/+20.8/+3.06 billion yuan, corresponding PS ratios of 2.1x/1.8x/1.6x. The company's platform content ecosystem has a deep barrier, and user engagement and monetization rates are steadily increasing. The report assigns a target valuation of 200 yuan per MAU by 2025, corresponding to a market cap of 70.1 billion yuan, a target PS of 2.5X corresponding to a target market cap of 77.5 billion yuan, and a SOTP valuation of 72.6 billion yuan, leading to a combined target market cap of 73.4 billion yuan. The target price for 2025 is 174 yuan/188 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating.
