特高压及输变电设备招标维持高景气度。截至2024 年11 月，特高压及输变电均完成了5 此批招标，其中特高压设备合计招标179.29亿元，同比下降39.5%，第五批次招标中，中国西电中标13.4 亿元，占比为7.5%，中标甘肃-浙江柔性直流特高压换流阀其中的一个包。输变电设备招标方面，前五批次合计招标658.2 亿元，同比增长11.6%，输变电和特高压设备招标合计小幅下降5.5%，维持高景气度。展望十五五期间，预计年均开工3-4 条直流特高压，行业景气度将持续到十五五。The company's results for the third quarter of 2024 exceeded market expectations. The company achieved revenue of 15.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 6.21% year on year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 4.903 billion yuan, up 3.74% year on year, a slight decrease of 12.93% month on month; realized net profit of 0.787 billion yuan, up 45.33% year on year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved net profit of 0.334 billion yuan, up 199.96% year on year, and 34.2% month on month. The company's comprehensive gross margin reached 20.48%, up 7.73 pct year on year, of which 2024Q3 gross margin reached 23.74%, up 6.51 pct year on year. The main reason was that during the reporting period, the company's delivery of high value-added products increased year on year, and the third quarter results exceeded market expectations.
The cost rate remained stable during the period. The company's expenses rate for the period was 13.37%, of which the sales expense ratio was 3.52%, an increase of 0.17pct. The main reason was that the company increased its market development efforts; the management expenses ratio was 6.31%, an increase of 0.57pct; the financial expenses ratio was -0.39%, a decrease of 0.58pct, and the company's expenses rate remained stable during the period.
R&D investment intensity was high, and R&D expenses increased by 33.77%. The company has formed a deep historical accumulation in the field of UHV transmission and distribution equipment manufacturing and has built a strong technical foundation. During the reporting period, the company was vigorously developing various products such as converter valves, GIS, circuit breakers, etc. The R&D cost growth rate in the first three quarters reached 33.77%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate. The R&D cost rate reached 3.85%, an increase of 0.69 pct over the previous year.
The tender for UHV and transmission and transformation equipment maintained a high level of prosperity. As of November 2024, UHV and power transmission and transformation have completed 5 batches of tenders, including a total of 17.929 billion yuan for UHV equipment, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5%. In the fifth batch of tenders, China Xidian won the bid of 1.34 billion yuan, accounting for 7.5%, and won the bid for one package of Gansu-Zhejiang flexible DC UHV converter valves. In terms of tenders for transmission and transformation equipment, the first five batches totaled 65.82 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% over the previous year. The total number of tenders for transmission, transformation and UHV equipment decreased slightly by 5.5%, maintaining a high level of prosperity. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is expected that an average of 3-4 DC UHV lines will be started per year, and the industry's boom will continue until the 15th.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: According to the company's new orders, we maintain the company's operating income of 24.69/28.77/32.68 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, and the corresponding net profit to mother of 1.18/1.48/1.74 billion yuan, respectively. Profits exceeded expectations due to the boom in power grid investment, maintaining a target price of 8.56 yuan/share and a “better than market” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Grid investment falls short of expectations; 2. Strong market competition has led to a sharp drop in gross margin; 3. Raw material prices have risen sharply.
