收入端，预计2024Q3 公司三元正极出货环比有所下降，但铁锂正极出货环比保持高增，一方面受海外三元需求放缓影响，另一方面公司坚定布局多元化技术路线，目前铁锂正极已成功导入亿纬锂能、兰钧新能源、宜春清陶等客户，处于放量阶段，预计2025 年公司铁锂正极出货延续高增态势。盈利端，Q3 整体毛利率为11.41%，环比下降2.1pct，推测主要因铁锂正极出货占比提升；分业务来看，预计Q3 三元正极单吨净利环比持平，保持领先地位，海外出货占比提升带来盈利韧性，预计规模效应下铁锂正极亏损有所收窄。Description of the event
Dangsheng Technology released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 5.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.95%; realized net profit of 0.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.87%; and realized the deduction of non-net profit of 0.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.35%. Q3 achieved revenue of 1.984 billion yuan, down 52.10% year on year and 2.01% month on month; realized net profit of 0.177 billion yuan, down 68.66% year on year and up 0.53% month on month; realized deduction of non-net profit of 0.105 billion yuan, down 81.63% year on year and 6.48% month on month.
Incident comments
On the revenue side, the company's ternary cathode shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in 2024Q3, but iron lithium cathode shipments continued to increase month-on-month. On the one hand, it was affected by the slowdown in overseas ternary demand, and on the other hand, the company firmly lays out diversified technical routes. Currently, lithium iron cathode has been successfully introduced to customers such as Everweft Lithium Energy, Lan Jun New Energy, and Yichun Qingtao, etc., and is in the volume stage. It is expected that the company will continue to increase rapidly in 2025. On the profit side, the overall gross margin of Q3 was 11.41%, down 2.1 pct from month to month. It is estimated that the share of lithium iron cathode shipments increased; by business, it is expected that Q3 ternary cathode net profit per ton will remain flat month-on-month, maintaining a leading position. The increase in overseas shipments has led to profit resilience. It is expected that iron lithium cathode losses will narrow due to scale effects.
In terms of other financial indicators, the 2024Q3 company's expense ratio was 7.14%, and credit impairment surged back 0.082 billion yuan in a single quarter. There was almost no asset impairment loss. The final Q3 net interest rate was 8.94%, a slight increase from month to month, and has been recovered quarterly since 2024.
Looking ahead, the company's multi-category cathode material development ideas are progressing steadily. The capacity-side company currently has a three-yuan production capacity of 0.051 million tons. Changzhou Phase II, Haimen Phase IV, and Panzhihua Phase I are gradually being put into operation. The European project plan is progressing steadily with 0.5 million tons (0.2 million tons of three yuan, 0.3 million tons of lithium iron (manganese)) progressing steadily, and 0.06 million tons of the first phase is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2025. On the customer side, the company's first-mover advantage for overseas customers is still obvious. Domestic customers are actively introducing it. With the gradual investment of overseas production capacity, the company's customer structure is expected to continue to be optimized in the future. In terms of products, high-nickel ternary cathodes continue to iterate on technology, while forward-looking cathode material products such as ultra-high nickel polyvalent, cobalt-free, solid-state lithium batteries, sodium electricity, and novel lithium-rich manganese-based materials have accelerated conversion. Among them, solid cathode materials have been introduced to customers such as Huineng, Qingtao, Wei Lan, and Ganfeng lithium batteries, which are optimistic about the company's future growth. The company expects net profit of 0.57 and 0.68 billion yuan in 24-25, and continues to be recommended.
Risk warning
1. Demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage terminals falls short of expectations;
2. Competition in the industrial chain has intensified.
