首次覆盖，给 予“增持”评价：萤石通过打造智能家居硬件产品和云服务双主业模式，不断延伸业务边界。我们预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.72/0.89/1.15 元（同比+0.1%/+24.9%/+28.2%），结合相对估值和绝对估值法，给予公司2025 年目标价46.52 元，“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Fluorite has created a dual main business model for smart home hardware products and cloud services. In the short term, the expansion of the smart home hardware category is sustainable, supported by revenue; in the long run, cloud services contribute continuous cash flow. Increase your holdings.
Key points of investment:
First coverage, giving a “gain” evaluation: Fluorite continues to expand its business boundaries by building a dual main business model for smart home hardware products and cloud services. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.72/0.89/1.15 yuan (+0.1%/+24.9%/+28.2%), respectively. Combined with relative valuation and absolute valuation methods, we will give the company a 2025 target price of 46.52 yuan, a “gain” rating.
Incubated in Haikang, it has sufficient endowments and hard work: Fluorite has a “2+5+N” strategy. “2” represents AI technology and fluorite cloud dual drive; “5” represents the five major self-developed hardware for smart wearables, smart home cameras, intelligent service robots, intelligent control and smart home entry. “N” is a symbol of product cooperation and ecological connectivity, meaning that Fluorite interconnects various smart devices in the home to form a unified intelligent ecosystem. The company was born out of Hikvision, a leading security company, and inherited Hikvision's outstanding visual abilities, but there are differences from Hikvision.
Hikang's mature B-side business experience makes Fluorite also capable of responding to fragmented demand, and has a complete offline channel layout and after-sales service system, which is conducive to Fluorite's development of B-side businesses such as commercial service robots and cloud duty. At the same time, Fluorite is working hard on C-side operations, the online platform is growing rapidly, and initial progress has been made in going overseas in Europe and Southeast Asia.
Short-term visual empowerment, and the expansion of new hardware categories has network effects: smart home cameras are the company's current cash flow business, accounting for about 56% of total revenue, with a domestic market share of more than 10%, and an obvious offline advantage. Based on this, the company has developed a second growth curve for smart door locks, accounting for nearly 13% of revenue. In addition, other categories of smart home hardware products are also being incubated one after another, and each expansion of the category will bring significant revenue growth. This is also the core reason why the company can give a valuation premium.
The long-term cloud model has been implemented, and the smart home ecosystem contributes to continuous cash flow: Under an intelligent ecosystem based on various hardware products, Fluorite's core long-term focus is cloud value-added services built on ecology. Currently, cloud revenue services account for 20% of the company's revenue. Compared to similar smart home companies overseas, Arlo cloud accounts for up to 40% of paid revenue. The core is that value-added services hit the pain points, so if Fluorite continues to improve the functions of value-added applications in the long term, it is expected that it will continue to enhance the contribution of cloud services and further build a complete smart home ecosystem.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in raw materials and increased competition in the industry.
