收入端，预计2024Q3 公司出货环比保持快速增长，产能利用率保持高位，主要受下游需求增长以及Q2 部分订单延迟确收影响，同时公司快充和储能新产品放量，市场份额有所扩大，出货增速快于行业。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 3.62 billion yuan, an increase of 14.16% year on year; net profit to mother 0.578 billion yuan, up 1.72% year on year; after deducting non-net profit of 0.571 billion yuan, an increase of 3.69% year on year. Q3 achieved revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, up 26.75% year on year and 23.88% month on month; realized net profit of 0.221 billion yuan, up 35.33% year on year and 6.34% month on month; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.223 billion yuan, up 38.79% year on year and 8.86% month on month.
Incident comments
On the revenue side, it is expected that the company's shipments will continue to grow rapidly in 2024Q3, and the capacity utilization rate will remain high, mainly affected by the growth in downstream demand and delays in the receipt of some Q2 orders. At the same time, the company's market share has expanded due to the release of new fast charging and energy storage products, and the shipment growth rate is faster than that of the industry.
On the profit side, Q3's gross margin was 24.72%, which was basically flat month-on-month, but the company's net profit per ton is expected to decline, mainly due to Q3's shipping structure adjustments, and the net profit per ton of energy storage products is slightly lower; secondarily, the company increased R&D investment. The Q3 R&D expenses rate was 3.74%, up 1.55pct from month to month, and 1.55pct year-on-year, mainly to actively prepare new power and energy storage anode products, which also lowered the profit level to a certain extent. On the other side, the company's Q3 asset impairment surged back 0.017 billion yuan, and credit impairment was calculated at 0.021 billion yuan, mainly due to an increase in revenue volume.
Looking ahead to Q4, it is expected that the company's production schedule will maintain a strong momentum and is expected to continue full production. On the profit side, the company's current price of anode products is stable month-on-month, cost-side R&D expenses, etc. are expected to remain flat month-on-month, and overall Q4 profit per ton is stable. Looking ahead to 2025, the company's new base in Shijiazhuang is expected to be built at the beginning of the year, driving new shipments. The 0.05 million-ton new base in Malaysia is also expected to start construction in 2025. Structurally, the new base's carbonization capacity is expected to increase, and the share of fast charging products is expected to increase. In terms of profit, the current supply-side capacity growth rate of the industry has declined markedly. Considering the large investment in anode production capacity and the use of cash flow, subsequent anode processing fees are expected to stabilize month-on-month. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.78 and 0.95 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, corresponding to 18 times PE in 25, and continues to be recommended.
Risk warning
1. Demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage terminals falls short of expectations;
2. Competition in the industrial chain has intensified.
