Hot news

• Fed's Gursbi: will continue to refer to the September dot plot, should slow down as they approach the neutral interest rate

Fed's Gursbi said he would consider rate cuts based on the Fed's September dot plot, suggesting not to move directly towards the neutral interest rate, but to slow down as they approach it. He also mentioned that inflation data must continue to improve, and if signs of inflation reversal appear, it is necessary to determine whether it is just a temporary fluctuation. There has not been much change in this regard in recent weeks. However, inflation has been slightly above the target level recently. If this situation persists, long-term inflation levels will be too high.

• The risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in December is increasing, and U.S. Treasury yields have erased gains for 2024.

Due to traders preparing for Trump's return and the possibility of the Fed slowing down its rate cuts, the two-month downturn in the US Treasury market has nearly wiped out this year's gains. Last Friday, many buyers entered the market as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.5% for the first time since May, signaling signs of US economic recovery and expectations of faster inflation due to a Trump victory, causing a significant blow to the bond market. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by December is about 60%.

• BofA's Hartnett: Shift in investment market ahead of Inauguration Day in January, allocating to US bonds, stocks in China and Europe, and gold

BofA strategist Michael Hartnett stated in his latest report that with the tightening of US financial conditions, investors are advised to adjust their portfolios ahead of Inauguration Day in January, focusing on US Treasuries, Chinese and European stocks, and gold. Hartnett mentioned that as Fed rate cuts are priced in, cracks in leverage (gold, small caps, risk parity, emerging markets) have begun to show, and any increase in long-term rates implies risk reversal.

• Foreign giants are actively increasing their holdings, with Chinese concept stocks becoming a new target for additional shares

Recently, institutional investors in the US have successively disclosed their third-quarter holdings (Form 13F). It is noteworthy that Chinese assets have become a new target for overseas funds to increase their holdings. Wall Street hedge fund magnates like David Tepper, who once boasted 'buy all Chinese assets,' under Appaloosa Asset Management, Soros Fund, Michael Burry, the prototype of 'The Big Short,' under Scion Asset Management, Oaktree Capital, the century-old asset management giant Berkshire Investment, as well as well-known private equity company Hillhouse Capital, have all increased the proportion of Chinese concept stocks in their investment portfolios.

• Insiders: Trump's team expresses hope to relax the regulations on self-driving cars in the USA.

According to insiders, members of US President-elect Trump's transition team have told advisors that they plan to make the federal framework for fully autonomous vehicles one of the Department of Transportation's top priorities. If the new rules can make autonomous driving vehicles possible, Tesla's CEO Musk will directly benefit. The current federal regulations pose a significant obstacle to companies that want to deploy vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, and Tesla is one of them.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The S&P 500 index hit its largest weekly decline since September.

Last Friday, the three major US stock indexes collectively closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling 2.24%, accumulating a 3.15% decline last week; the S&P 500 index fell 1.32%, with a weekly decline of 2.08%; the Dow fell 0.7%, a weekly decline of 1.24%. Among them, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index hit their largest weekly declines since September, while the Dow hit its largest weekly decline since late October.

Most large-cap tech stocks fell, with Amazon, Meta down over 4%, Nvidia down over 3%, Microsoft down nearly 3%, Google down nearly 2%; Tesla up over 3%.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.82%, with a cumulative decline of 5.9% last week; JD.com rose nearly 5%, Miniso, Li Auto rose over 2%; Alibaba, iQiyi fell over 2%.

• "Most lethal in history" US Health Secretary nominee, vaccine stocks plummeted for several days.

Last Friday,$BioNTech (BNTX.US)$Fell nearly 9%, $Moderna (MRNA.US)$decreased by over 7%, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index plummeting over 4%. Industry insiders say Kennedy's "junk science" poses a huge threat to public health. Wall Street analysts believe that the nomination of anti-vaccine advocate Kennedy presents significant uncertainty to the biotechnology industry, potentially leading to profound and unpredictable impacts on the industry.

• Musk's xAI secured $6 billion in funding to purchase 0.1 million Nvidia chips for boosting supercomputing centers.

According to foreign reports, Elon Musk's AI company xAI, estimated at $50 billion, raised up to $6 billion. Sources suggest that the funding is expected to be completed early next week, with $5 billion coming from Middle Eastern sovereign funds and $1 billion from other investors, some of whom may wish to add further investments. Insiders reveal that this funding will be used to purchase 0.1 million pieces $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Chips are used to enhance the cloud cluster of Yunji.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The full self-driving (FSD) is expected to rely on the new Memphis supercomputer.

• DJT's major shareholder cleared out their positions, missing out on 'unexpected wealth and fortune.'

A regulatory document shows,$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$One of the major shareholders has sold almost all of their holdings, but due to the early selling timing, they missed the gains following Trump's victory, thus failing to catch 'unexpected wealth and fortune.' Information disclosed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed that by the end of the third quarter on September 30, financial company ARC Global Investments II and its manager Patrick Orlando held only 30,147 shares of Trump Media, accounting for approximately 0.01% of the company's common stock.

• Super micro computer is approaching the critical delisting point next Monday, and the company stated that it would "take all necessary measures as soon as possible."

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ A spokesperson responded last week, 'As previously disclosed, Super Micro Computer intends to take all necessary measures as soon as possible to meet the Nasdaq's continued listing requirements.' According to Nasdaq Exchange rules, Super Micro Computer must submit an audited 10-K annual report by November 18, or submit a compliance plan to the Exchange. The theoretical deadline is the 16th, but according to Exchange rules, if the last day is a weekend, it will be extended to the end of the next trading day.

• The Biden administration finalized a $6.6 billion subsidy for Taiwan Semiconductor's factory construction.

Last Friday local time in the United States, the American Chip Act subsidy project, which the chip industry unanimously complained was 'progressing slowly,' finally arrived at the moment of payout - the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its final decision to provide up to $6.6 billion in subsidies to . $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ In addition to the $6.6 billion direct subsidy, Taiwan Semiconductor also received up to $5 billion in low-interest government loans and conditional tax incentives for the construction of a semiconductor factory in Arizona. U.S. Department of Commerce officials revealed that these incentives will be dispersed in stages when Taiwan Semiconductor reaches milestones, with at least $1 billion expected by the end of this year.

• McDonald's will invest $0.1 billion to address the E. coli epidemic, boost sales, and support franchisees.

After the E. coli incident, mcdonald's (MCD.US) McDonald's will spend 0.1 billion US dollars to revitalize sales and support franchisees. A memo to employees and franchisees shows that McDonald's announced that the Big Mac with onions is now back on the national menu, with the company investing $35 million in marketing and advertising. In addition, McDonald's also revealed that the company is spending $65 million to support franchisee projects, such as the deferred payment of rent and franchise royalties.

• David Tepper, who enthusiastically recommends buying china, is reducing his shareholding in Alibaba and increasing his shareholding in pdd holdings and jd.com.

The Tepper fund has increased its position in china by 12 percentage points to 38% compared to the previous quarter, of which approximately 5% less in $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ stocks,$Baidu (BIDU.US)$The positions of China large cap ETF, China internet plus-related index ETF have also decreased slightly, while adding more than double the holdings $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ shares and some $JD.com (JD.US)$ 、$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$of the shareholding.

• Duan Yongping's latest holding disclosure: significantly increased holdings in pdd holdings, reduced positions in apple

Duan Yongping increased his shareholding of PDD by 3.8 million shares in the third quarter, with a position change of up to 36 times, becoming the fifth largest heavily-weighted stock of the quarter.$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$His holdings increased from 1.54 million shares at the end of the second quarter to 9.22 million shares, while in the same quarter he also reduced his holdings of Apple, the top heavily-weighted stock, by 11.2 million shares to 52.77 million shares, liquidating Bank of America. It is worth noting that Duan Yongping has recently been frequently buying, selling 1000 Tencent put options every day. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ puts, selling 1000 Tencent puts every day.

Top 20 in transaction volume

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Beishui bought over HK$0.6 billion worth of Tencent shares, purchased nearly HK$0.5 billion worth of Ping An Insurance shares, and sold over HK$5.7 billion worth of Tracker Fund of Hong Kong shares.

On November 15 (Friday), northbound funds net bought HK$0.922 billion of Hong Kong stocks.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$、$PING AN (02318.HK)$Net buyings were 0.63 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.516 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.491 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$、$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$Net sales amounted to 5.744 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.951 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.153 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively.

• Alibaba's revenue in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year to 236.5 billion yuan.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The group released its financial report for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025. The report shows that the revenue for the quarter was 236.503 billion yuan (RMB), a 5% year-on-year increase; net income was 43.547 billion yuan, a 63% year-on-year increase; adjusted EBITA decreased by 5% year-on-year to 40.561 billion yuan. According to Alibaba's Chief Financial Officer Xu Hong, 'The revenue growth this quarter was driven by Taotian Group's paced increase in monetization rate, including service fees based on GMV and site-wide promotion by merchants using our marketing tools. We continue to invest in our core business and improve operational efficiency.'

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: USA November NAHB property market index, Japan's central bank governor Ueda Kazuo delivers a speech, Federal Reserve officials speak, Xiaomi's performance

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the USA's November NAHB property market index will be released.

In terms of financial events, Japan's central bank governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech.

This will be the first opportunity for Ueda Kazuo to directly speak on monetary policy since November 5, when Trump won the usa presidential election, and the third quarter GDP data from japan showed that consumer spending unexpectedly remained resilient. The market will pay close attention, seeking clues about the possibility of the japan central bank raising interest rates next month.

In addition, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee delivered a welcoming speech at the Financial Markets Group fall meeting.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $TUYA-W (02391.HK)$ will announce its latest financial report; pre-market trading. $EHang (EH.US)$ The results will be announced in pre-market trading. $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ The performance will be announced after trading.

Futubull Morning News:

There is nothing new under the sun.

— William Gann

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