收入端，公司2024Q3 收入同比有所下降，环比有所增长，我们预计其中海风业务是重要影响因素之一，今年由于公司对应的海风项目开工节奏相对较慢，导致2024Q3 公司海风产品出货量预计同比有所下降，环比有所增加；同时，陆风塔筒方面，预计公司2024Q3出货量同样同比有所下降，环比有所增加。我们认为公司Q3 收入环比出现增长，以及海风、陆风产品出货Q3 环比增长，一定程度上表明国内海风和陆风项目的整体开工建设节奏有所加速。[Event description]
The company achieved revenue of 3.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 44%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 0.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59%. Among them, the company achieved revenue of 1.3 billion yuan in 2024Q3, down 38% year on year, up 8.0% month on month, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 0.08 billion yuan, down 46% year on year and up 12.0% month on month.
Incident comments
On the revenue side, the company's 2024Q3 revenue declined year-on-year and increased month-on-month. We expect the seabreeze business to be one of the important influencing factors. This year, due to the relatively slow start of the company's corresponding ocean breeze project, the 2024Q3 company's shipping volume is expected to decline year on year and increase month over month. At the same time, in terms of landwind towers, the company's 2024Q3 shipments are also expected to decline year on year and increase month over month. We believe that the month-on-month increase in the company's Q3 revenue, as well as the month-on-month increase in shipments of sea wind and land wind products in Q3, indicate to a certain extent that the overall pace of commencement and construction of domestic sea wind and land wind projects has accelerated.
On the profit side, the company's gross sales margin for 2024Q1-Q3 was 25.3%, up 3.2 pct year on year; 2024Q3's gross sales margin was 22.8%, up year on year, and there was a month-on-month decline. We believe that the year-on-year increase is mainly due to changes in business structure, that is, the share of revenue from the 2024Q3 manufacturing business is expected to decline year on year, while the share of revenue from power plant operating business with high gross margin has increased; the decline in 2024Q3 gross margin is expected to some extent due to changes in the company's business structure. In terms of period expenses, the 2024Q3 company's expenses rate for the period was about 15%, an increase of about 5 pcts over the previous year. Among them, the management expense ratio and financial expense ratio increased significantly year-on-year. It is expected that the dilution effect will weaken mainly due to the decline in the company's overall revenue scale in 2024Q3. At the same time, we expect that due to the company's current small shipping scale of Sea Wind products, the overall profitability of Sea Wind products is not high. In the future, as the scale of shipments expands, the Sea Wind business is expected to usher in profit elasticity.
Other financial indicators, the company's 2024Q3 net operating cash flow inflow was about 0.11 billion yuan, and capital expenditure was about 0.19 billion yuan, indicating that the company is actively developing production capacity. By the end of 2024Q3, the company's inventory was 2.8 billion yuan, an increase over the previous year; the contract debt was about 0.83 billion yuan, which is high overall, which is expected to lay the foundation for the subsequent delivery boom.
Looking ahead, with the commencement of projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the future, the company is expected to directly benefit from the increase in shipments of Haifeng products. At the same time, the company is actively developing overseas business layout, which is expected to seize overseas sea wind release opportunities and unleash the flexibility of performance growth. It is estimated that in 2024 and 2025, the net profit attributable to the company's parent company shareholders will be 0.55 and 1.35 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 28.3 and 11.5 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
