Shareholders might have noticed that Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:DFLI) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to US$0.49 in the past week. Statutory results overall were mixed, with revenues coming in 21% lower than the analysts predicted. What's really surprising is that losses of US$0.11 per share were 40% smaller than what was predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Dragonfly Energy Holdings from four analysts is for revenues of US$86.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 78% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 7.0% to US$0.41 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$103.4m and US$0.41 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
The analysts have cut their price target 9.7% to US$1.75per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dragonfly Energy Holdings at US$3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.25. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Dragonfly Energy Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Dragonfly Energy Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 58% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 17% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.8% per year. Not only are Dragonfly Energy Holdings' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Dragonfly Energy Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Dragonfly Energy Holdings' future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dragonfly Energy Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Dragonfly Energy Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
