外销上调关联交易额度，深度受益大客户库存去化完成+需求复苏。公司发布《关于增加2024 年度日常关联交易预计额度的公告》，将2024 年与SEB 日常关联交易金额上调至69.5 亿元（前次预计为62 亿元），同比2023 年增长17%。公司关联方SEB 集团全年销售额增长等具有信心，上半年海外整体复苏趋势明显，海外库存去化完成/弱补库+低基数影响下，公司外销增幅明显。此外，面对美国加征关税、海外运费上涨问题，公司海外工厂准备充足，在美销售占比不高，风险可控。Key points of investment:
Supor's domestic sales performance is superior to the industry. Export sales are developing rapidly in collaboration with SEB, benefiting from trade-in. In terms of domestic sales, the company grasped changes in consumer trends, such as the increase in the number of small households, the development of new people such as silver hair and Gen Z, and innovatively launched far-infrared stainless steel rice cookers, portable coffee machines, etc., and the company's domestic sales outperformed the industry. In terms of export sales, SEB's consumer business grew significantly, and the company developed with SEB Group through innovative collaboration and cost advantages. In terms of trade-in, state subsidies have had a significant impact on sales. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, sales of household appliances were +149% year-on-year. According to Aowei Cloud Network data, online sales of small household appliances from September 30 to October 6 were +21%/61%/17%, respectively. The company is involved in a wide range of small household appliances and is expected to benefit from the trade-in policy.
Domestic sales outperformed the industry, and channel competitiveness was remarkable. The company achieved the good performance of traditional e-commerce and Douyin with the highest overall market share. According to data from Aowei Cloud Network, Supor's sales in the small kitchen appliance market are superior to the industry level, and its online and offline market share has increased, ranking first in the industry. Sales of 2024Q1-3 industry-side air fryers/rice cookers/electric kettles/wall breakers fell 30%/4%/6%/11% respectively, but the company achieved superior growth to the industry, mainly benefiting from tight demand in sales categories and continuous innovation on the product side. According to Jiuqian online data, the company's 24Q3 online revenue was +1.5% YoY, of which the Douyin platform's revenue was +21% YoY. The company's two major business segments superimpose new categories of businesses such as cleaning appliances and coffee machines, and continue to expand. It is hoped that the new categories will drive continuous and steady growth in the future. In terms of channels, the company has demonstrated strong competitiveness, and offline O2O and B2B channels have performed well.
Export sales raised related transaction quotas, profoundly benefiting from the completion of inventory removal and demand recovery from major customers. The company issued the “Notice on Increasing the Estimated Amount of Daily Related Transactions in 2024”, which raised the amount of daily related transactions with SEB in 2024 to 6.95 billion yuan (previously estimated 6.2 billion yuan), an increase of 17% over 2023. SEB Group, an affiliate of the company, is confident that sales will increase throughout the year. The overall overseas recovery trend in the first half of the year was obvious. Under the influence of completed overseas inventory removal/weak inventory replenishment+ low base, the company's export sales increased significantly. Furthermore, in the face of the imposition of tariffs by the US and rising overseas freight rates, the company's overseas factories are fully prepared, do not account for a high share of sales in the US, and the risk is manageable.
Maintain profit forecasts and “buy” ratings. We maintained our 24-26 profit forecast of 2.32/2.54/2.66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.2%/9.8%/4.7%, respectively, corresponding PE 18/17/16 times, respectively. Considering that the company is a leading enterprise in traditional small household appliances, while consolidating the dominant position of traditional e-commerce platforms, domestic sales continue to increase investment in new e-commerce platforms such as Douyin and accelerate the successful implementation of the online channel transformation strategy; export sales are growing steadily, and the company's market competitiveness continues to stand out, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk.
