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新天然气(603393):领跑煤层气景气赛道 气源放量助力成长

Yongxing Securities ·  Nov 13, 2024 16:00

Core views

Accelerate the deployment of upstream gas sources and open up the entire natural gas industry chain. The company has become a scarce domestic private enterprise with its own gas source through investment integration in leading coalbed methane development company Yamei Energy and the continuous expansion of upstream projects, and has basically achieved a pattern of industrial chain integration with “resources, pipeline networks, and customers below”. In 2023, the share of coalbed methane mining and sales business increased dramatically to around 68%. As the company's coalbed methane production reached a new high year on year, net profit to mother was about 0.882 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of about 30.28% year on year.

Unconventional gas has great potential for growth, and demand for natural gas is improving in the long term. Compared to petroleum, coal, etc., natural gas is the only clean, low-carbon energy source among the world's top three primary energy sources, and is also an important transition energy in the energy transition process. However, natural gas accounts for only 9% of domestic primary energy consumption (2023), which is significantly lower than the global level (about 23%). Under the “dual carbon” strategy, there is plenty of room for growth in natural gas consumption. However, coalbed methane is an important supplement to natural gas. With the advancement of exploration and development technology and the support of related subsidy policies, domestic coalbed methane has great potential for growth. In the context of gas price reform, integrated companies with their own gas sources are expected to benefit.

Resource advantages continue to be strengthened, and multi-block volume growth is accelerating. Yamei Energy is a leading domestic enterprise in the field of coalbed methane development. Through the acquisition of Yamei Energy, the company obtained coalbed methane development resources for the Panzhuang and Mabi projects. Among them, in the first half of 2024, the production of the Mabi block increased by about 59.90% year on year, and the average selling price increased by about 12.04% year on year, achieving a sharp increase in volume and price. In addition, the company continues to obtain upstream projects such as Zijinshan and Kashgar North, and has expanded high-quality resources such as compact gas, shale gas, and conventional oil and gas to provide a solid guarantee for long-term production growth.

Profit forecasting and investment advice

We believe that as a scarce integrated private enterprise with its own gas source in China, the company continues to expand new resources while its stock of coalbed methane resources continues to increase production, and there is plenty of room for future production. At the same time, in the context of energy structure transformation and gas price reform, the company's traditional gas business can be expected to grow, and the performance is expected to usher in two-wheel drive. We expect the company's net profit to be 1.316 billion yuan, 1.601 billion yuan, and 1.855 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and the corresponding PE will be 10 times, 8 times, and 7 times (corresponding to the closing price on November 14), respectively, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.

Risk warning

Industry cyclical risks, production safety and environmental risks, risk of changes in government subsidy policies, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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