维持“增持”评级，给予 2025年估值 60xPE，维持目标价为 280.57元。考虑到资本市场成交量持续放大，维持公司24-26 年EPS 为3.00/4.67/6.59 元，给予公司25 年60xPE，对应目标价为280.57 元，维持公司“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The Tonghuashun subsidiary received administrative supervision measures due to problems in the investment business, and the subsidiary suspended the addition for 3 months. Since the company's revenue share is relatively small and the stock business can still be operated, it is expected that the impact on the company's performance will be small.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the 2025 valuation was 60xPE, and the target price was maintained at 280.57 yuan. Considering that capital market turnover continues to expand, the company's 24-26 EPS was maintained at 3.00/4.67/6.59 yuan, and the company was given 60 xPE for 25 years, and the corresponding target price was 280.57 yuan, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.
Incident: Zhejiang Tonghuashun Cloud Software Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Cloud Software Company”), a subsidiary of Tonghuashun, received the “Decision on Administrative Supervision Measures” from the Zhejiang Regulatory Bureau (hereinafter referred to as the “Zhejiang Regulatory Bureau”) of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Problems with the investment business led to the receipt of administrative supervision measures. The following irregularities in the investment business of cloud software companies have led to the receipt of administrative supervision measures: 1) there are situations where marketers use some customer success stories, screenshots showing customer praise, past performance of individual stocks, etc. to display publicity, and lack risk reminders; 2) Some marketing and service personnel exaggerate or mislead propaganda and promise benefits in disguise; 3) Some investment advisors are not registered as securities investment advisors; 4) There are situations where compliance control is not in place during the live streaming business promotion process, and there are situations where it is implied that individual stocks are recommended; 5) Cloud Software operates as the main platform body In the process of cooperating with securities companies to carry out investment consulting services, compliance management responsibilities were not fulfilled; 6) Compliance control was inadequate in the process of cooperating with affiliated companies to carry out securities investment consulting services.
The Zhejiang Regulatory Bureau decided to take administrative supervision and management measures for cloud software companies to make corrections and order the suspension of new customers. The period of rectification and suspension is 3 months.
The incident had a minor impact on the company's revenue and profits. In 2023, Cloud Software's securities investment consulting business revenue was 0.199 billion yuan, accounting for 5.58% of the company's consolidated statement revenue. This administrative supervision measure mainly involves suspending new customers without affecting cloud software companies' services to existing customers. It is expected that the impact on the company's revenue and profits in 2024 will be small.
Risk warning: Capital markets fluctuate greatly and regulatory policies change.
