Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) share price has dived 28% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 15% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Groupon's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Multiline Retail industry is similar at about 0.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

How Groupon Has Been Performing

Groupon hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Groupon would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.8%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 54% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 1.8% during the coming year according to the three analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 13%.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Groupon's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining revenues are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Groupon's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our check of Groupon's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If the declining revenues were to materialize in the form of a declining share price, shareholders will be feeling the pinch.

Having said that, be aware Groupon is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.